Monday, June 30, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 7-1-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Aussie Higher as RBA on Hold, Manufacturing Data Watched

Aussie strengthens mildly after RBA left rates unchanged at 2.50% as widely expected. The central bank reiterated in the accompanying statement that "the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates." Regarding the economy, it expected growth to remain "a little below trend over the year ahead". Inflation is expected to "remain consistent with the target over the next one to two years, even with lower levels of the exchange rate." Overall, the accompany statement is like the carbon copy of the prior one. AUD/USD took out last week's high of 0.9446 and should head for a test on key near term resistance at 0.9460.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9400; (P) 0.9419; (R1) 0.9451; More...

AUD/USD resumes the rise from 0.9211 today and is heading back to 0.9460 key resistance. We'd stay cautious on reversal from 0.9460 to extend the near term sideway pattern. And, break of 0.9353 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9211 support and below. However, decisive break of 0.9460 will confirm resumption of whole rally from 0.8659 and should then target medium term fibonacci level at 0.9583.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q2 12 16 17
23:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q2 19 19 24
1:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI Jun 51 51 50.8
1:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y May 0.80% 0.80% 0.90% 0.70%
1:45 CNY HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Jun F 50.7 50.8 50.8
4:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
7:30 CHF SVME-PMIs Index Jun 52.6 52.5
7:45 EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI Jun 53.5 53.2
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Jun -9K 24K
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Jun 6.70% 6.70%
8:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jun F 51.9 51.9
8:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Jun 56.7 57
9:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate May 11.70% 11.70%
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Jun 55.5 55.4
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Jun 60 60
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M May 0.50% 0.20%
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to move higher and mixture of offers and stops at 1.3670-75 (stops above) is in focus, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.3690-00, sizeable selling interest is expected at 1.3690-00 with more stops tipped above 1.3705, sellers are waiting further out at 1.3725-30 and 1.3750-60. On the downside, bids remain at 1.3640 and 1.3600-10, good size buy orders remain at 1.3570-75 and 1.3545-50, more buying interest is located at 1.3520-30, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.3500-10.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.0750 or buy at 1.0610

As the greenback has remained under pressure, suggesting near term downside risk remains for recent decline from 1.1279 top to extend further weakness to 1.0630-35 (100% projection of 1.1279-1.0858 measuring from 1.1053), however, loss of downward momentum should limit downside to 1.0605-10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0190-1.1279) and bring rebound later. Above 1.0700 would bring recovery to 1.0750-52 where renewed selling interest should emerge and bring such a decline.

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.8100

Euro's recovery from 0.7983 has retained our view that further consolidation above recent low of 0.7959 would be seen and break of last week's high of 0.8034 would bring another corrective rise in wave iv to 0.8060, however, reckon 0.8100 would limit upside and bring another decline. A break of said support at 0.7983 would bring weakness to 0.7969 but only break of said recent low at 0.7959 would confirm decline has resumed in wave v of iii

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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