Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 2-6-14

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Daily Report: Markets Cautiously Steady ahead of BoE and ECB Markets are cautiously steady as focus turns to one of the key event rates of the week, ECB's rate decision. It's been generally agreed that Eurozone is facing deflation risk as January CPI flash moved further away from the central bank's 2% target to as low as 0.7% yoy. But the opinion on money markets conditions were divided as some seen recent volatility in EONIA as temporary. The ECB is facing the decision of whether to lower interest rates, launching another Long Term Refinancing Operation, or even outright QE. In particular, regarding interest rates, ECB has the option of keeping the refinancing rate unchanged at 0.25%, or lower it by 15bps to 0.10%. In the meantime, ECB could also keep the deposit rate unchanged at 0%. Or indeed, ECB could do the unprecedented by cutting the deposit rate to -0.1%. That would give a strong signal to the market that the central bank is willing to explore into uncharted territories. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.72; (P) 137.12; (R1) 137.71; More... Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidation could be seen above 136.22 temporary low. But recovery should e limited well below 140.49 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 136.22 will target 135.50 key support level. Decisive break there will argue that 145.68 is indeed a medium term top and deeper correction would be seen to 131.21 support next. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
0:30	AUD	Trade Balance (AUD) Dec	468M	-300M	-118M
0:30	AUD	Retail Sales M/M Dec	0.50%	1.20%	0.70%
0:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence Q4	8		3	5
6:45	CHF	SECO Consumer Confidence Jan		1	-5
7:00	CHF	Trade Balance (CHF) Dec		2.41B	2.11B
11:00	EUR	German Factory Orders M/M Dec		0.30%	2.10%
12:00	GBP	BoE Rate Decision		0.50%	0.50%
12:00	GBP	BoE Asset Purchase Target		375B	375B
12:30	USD	Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jan			-5.90%
12:45	EUR	ECB Rate Decision		0.25%	0.25%
13:30	EUR	ECB Press Conference
13:30	CAD	International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Dec		-0.7B	-0.94B
13:30	USD	Trade Balance Dec		-$35.8B	-$34.3B
13:30	USD	Non-Farm Productivity Q4 P		2.50%	3.00%
13:30	USD	Unit Labor Costs Q4 P		-0.50%	-1.40%
13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 1)		334K	348K
15:00	CAD	Ivey PMI SA Jan		50	46.3
15:30	USD	Natural Gas Storage			-230B

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound rebounded in London in part due to the release of better-than-expected UK data, offers at 1.6315-20 and 1.6340 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.6350 and 1.6370, more selling interest is located at 1.6400-10, sizeable offers remain at 1.6440-50 and 1.6470-80. On the downside, bids in good size are still seen at 1.6250-60 with some stops placed below 1.6240, option defensive buying interest is seen at 1.6200-10.

Read more...

Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8240

As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after staging a strong rebound earlier this week, near term bullishness remains for the rebound from 0.8168 temporary low to bring retracement of recent decline, above resistance at 0.8349 would add credence to this view, bring further subsequent gain towards next resistance at 0.8393 later.

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.1170

Despite last week's resumption of upmove to 1.1224, the subsequent retreat suggests a temporary top is possibly formed there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for test of 1.1032 support, however, a sustained breach below there is needed to add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.0990-00 and possibly towards support at 1.0950-55.