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Daily Report: NZD Surges after RBNZ Hike, AUD Weighed Down by Job DataNew Zealand dollar surges today after RBNZ hiked interest raise and affirmed the tightening bias. The central bank raised the OCR by the third time this year, by 25 bps to 3.25% as widely expected. It noted that "inflationary pressures are expected to increase" and emphasized that " it is important that inflation expectations remain contained and that interest rates return to a more neutral level". And it reiterated that "the speed and extent to which the OCR will need to rise will depend on future economic and financial data, and its implications for inflationary pressures." Meanwhile, inflation forecasts was revised lower to 1.5% by year end, comparing to prior projection of 1.9%. However, RBNZ governor Wheeler said in the press conference that there are a lot of uncertainty around the forecasts. He noted that RBNZ would prefer a "lower exchange rate and higher long-term interest rate". Overall, the statement suggested that RBNZ would not deviate from the policy path and some economists are seeing over 50% chance of another rate hike in July. | |
| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9364; (P) 0.9385; (R1) 0.9405; More... AUD/USD breached 0.9408 but failed to sustain above it and retreated sharply. A temporary top is formed at 0.9410 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.9410 will suggests that the consolidation pattern from 0.9460 has completed at 0.9211 and larger rally is resuming for above 0.9460. Meanwhile, below 0.9328 will extend the consolidation pattern with another fall towards 0.9211. Overall, even in case of another deep decline, strong support should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 0.8659 to 0.9460 at 0.9154 and bring rally resumption. |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency recovered in European session, offers are still noted at 1.3560, 1.3575-85 and 1.3600-10, sell orders in good size are tipped at 1.3625 and 1.3645-50, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3665-75 and 1.3680-1.3700 area with stops expected above barrier at figure. On the downside, bids remain at 1.3520, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.3500-10 with fresh demand expected around 1.3475 and 1.3450. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold short entered at 1.0920Current selloff adds credence to our view that correction from 1.0814 has possibly ended at 1.0960 last week and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards said support at 1.0814. Having said that, only break there would indicate the c leg of wave iv is in progress and extend the decline from 1.1279 (wave iii top) for a stronger correction of early upmove to 1.0800, then towards 1.0730-40 Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6730Although the British pound has maintained a firm tone after staging a rebound from 1.6738, a break above yesterday's high of 1.6817 is needed to signal retreat from 1.6846 has ended and bring retest of this level, otherwise, further consolidation is in store and near term downside risk remains for weakness to 1.6730, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, downside should be limited to support at 1.6723 and bring rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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