Monday, June 16, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 6-17-16

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Aussie Lower after RBA Minutes, UK Inflation Watched

Aussie weakens mildly today after RBA minutes showed that interest rates will likely be on hold in the foreseeable future. It note that "given this outlook for the economy and the significant degree of monetary stimulus already in place to support economic activity, the board judged that the current accommodative stance of policy was likely to be appropriate for some time yet." The central bank said that pace of growth will likely be "a little below trend" for the rest of the year. There will be "substantial falls in mining investment, "below-average growth of public demand" and subdued non-mining investment. Regarding the exchange change, RBA reiterated that it remained high by historical standards.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 172.67; (P) 172.97; (R1) 173.21; More.....

GBP/JPY turned sideway ahead of 173.46 resistance. But with 172.53 support intact, further rise is expected. Current rise from 169.53 could extend further to 174.84 key resistance. At this point, we'd remain cautious on strong resistance from there to bring reversal to extend the medium term sideway pattern. Below 172.53 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 170.95 support. However, decisive break of 174.84 will confirm resumption of larger up trend.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 AUD RBA Minutes
05:45 CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
07:15 CHF Producer and Import Prices M/M May 0.10% -0.30%
07:15 CHF Producer and Import Prices Y/Y May -0.80% -1.20%
08:30 GBP CPI M/M May 0.20% 0.40%
08:30 GBP CPI Y/Y May 1.70% 1.80%
08:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y May 1.70% 2.00%
08:30 GBP RPI Y/Y May 2.50% 2.50%
08:30 GBP RPI M/M May 0.20% 0.40%
08:30 GBP PPI - Input M/M May 0.20% -1.10%
08:30 GBP PPI - Input Y/Y May -4.10% -5.50%
08:30 GBP PPI - Output M/M May 0.20% 0.00%
08:30 GBP PPI - Output Y/Y May 0.80% 0.60%
08:30 GBP PPI Core Output M/M May 0.10% 0.00%
08:30 GBP PPI Core Output Y/Y May 1.10% 1.00%
09:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment Jun 35 33.1
09:00 EUR German ZEW Current Situation Jun 62.6 62.1
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Jun 59.6 55.2
12:30 USD CPI M/M May 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y May 2.00% 2.00%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M May 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y May 1.80% 1.80%
12:30 USD Housing Starts M/M May 1.034M 1.072M
12:30 USD Building Permits M/M May 1.075M 1.080M
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency found decent demand just above last week's low of 1.3512 and has rebounded quite strongly, offers at 1.3560 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.3580-85 and 1.3600-10, more selling interest is tipped at 1.3625 and 1.3640-50, some sellers are expected further out at 1.3665-75 and 1.3680-1.3700 area. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3530 and in good size at 1.3500-10 with sizeable stops building up below 1.3500, more buying interest is located at 1.3475 and 1.3450, fresh demand should emerge further out at 1.3435 and 1.3400-20 area.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold short entered at 1.0920

As the greenback has remained under pressure after dropping from 1.0960, retaining our bearishness for early decline to resume after consolidation, below support at 1.0814 would indicate the c leg of wave iv is in progress and extend the decline from 1.1279 (wave iii top) for a stronger correction of early upmove to 1.0800, then towards 1.0730-40 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0190-1.1279), however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.0690-00

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.7040 or Buy at 1.6890

As cable has maintained a firm undertone after intra-day breach of psychological resistance at 1.7000, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and may extend further gain towards previous resistance at 1.7044 (2009 high), however, loss of near term upward momentum should limit upside to 1.7050-60 and bring retreat later. Below 1.6940-45 would suggest top is possibly formed

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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