Thursday, June 12, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-12-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Shrugs off Weak Data, Kiwi Stays Strong

Not much change is seen in the forex markets after slightly disappointing data release from US. Yen pared back some of this week's advance but stays firm against dollar in Euro. Euro remains the weakest currency this week on policy outlook. Kiwi is the strongest one today after RBNZ's rate hike. Aussie recovered the post employment data losses. Meanwhile, thanks to cross buying against Euro, Sterling is the second strongest currency today. US retail sales rose 0.3% in May while ex-auto sales rose 0.1%, both were below expectation. Initial jobless claims rose to 317k in the week ended June 7 versus consensus of 309k. Import price index rose 0.1% mom in May versus expectation of 0.2% mom.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 101.81; (P) 102.10; (R1) 102.34; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Rebound from 100.82 could have completed and deeper fall would be seen to 101.42 support. Break will target a test on key support zone of 100.61/75. On the upside, above 102.79 will extend the rebound from 100.82. But, overall, price actions from 100.75 are viewed as a consolidation pattern and we'd expect strong resistance below 104.12 and bring reversal.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 3.25% 3.25% 3.00%
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance May 57.00% 52.00% 54.00% 55.00%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Apr -9.10% -10.80% 19.10%
01:30 AUD Employment Change May -4.8K 10.0K 14.2K 10.3K
01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate May 5.80% 5.90% 5.80%
06:00 EUR German Wholesale Price Index M/M May -0.10% 0.30% 0.20%
08:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Apr 0.80% 0.50% -0.30% -0.40%
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Apr 0.20% 0.30% 0.20%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales May 0.30% 0.60% 0.10% 0.50%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos May 0.10% 0.40% 0.00% 0.40%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 7) 317K 309K 313K
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M May 0.10% 0.20% -0.40% -0.50%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 111B 119B
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency filled bids at 1.3520 but found buying interest at 1.3512 and has recovered, mixture of bids and stops remains at 1.3500-10, fresh demand is expected around 1.3475 and further out 1.3450. On the upside, offers remain at 1.3550-60, 1.3575-85 and 1.3600-10, sell orders in good size are tipped at 1.3625 and 1.3640-50, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3665-75 and 1.3680-1.3700 area with stops expected above barrier at figure.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6790

As the British pound has surged again after brief pullback, suggesting the retreat from 1.6846 has ended at 1.6738 yesterday and above this level would extend the erratic rise from 1.6693 low for a strong retracement of recent decline to 1.6860 and possibly towards resistance at 1.6882 but reckon 1.6900 would hold from here, bring retreat later.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Hold long entered at 1.3537

As the single currency has slipped again after meeting resistance around the lower Kumo, suggesting near term downside risk remains and marginal weakness from here cannot be ruled out, however, as long as support at 1.3503 holds, further consolidation would be seen and another bounce to yesterday's high of 1.3557 is likely but break of the upper Kumo (now at 1.3596) is needed to suggest the fall from 1.3677 has ended and bring another rise towards this level later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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