Thursday, June 5, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-5-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Hammered as ECB Cut Rates, Signaled QE

Euro drops sharply today after ECB finally delivered what has been expected, cutting all of the three main interest rates. In particular, the deposit rate was lowered into negative territory for the first time in history. And, that made ECB the first major central bank to charge fees on deposits. ECB lowered all three interest rates. The main refinancing rate was cut by 10 bps to 0.15%. Deposit rate was lowed by 10bps to -0.10%, into negative territory. Marginal lending facility rate was lowered by 35bps to 0.40%.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4631; (P) 1.4674; (R1) 1.4697; More...

EUR/AUD's strong break of 1.4563 support confirmed resumption of whole decline from 1.5831. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall is viewed as a correction of the larger down trend and should now target medium term fibonacci level at 1.4216. We'll look for reversal there. On the upside, above 1.4750 resistance is needed to be the first sign of reversal. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay bearish even in case of recovery.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Apr -122M 510M 731M
01:45 CNY HSBC China Services PMI May 50.7 51.4
08:10 EUR Eurozone Retail PMI May 49.9 51.2
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Apr 0.40% 0.00% 0.30% 0.10%
11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 375B 375B 375B
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y May 45.50% 5.70%
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 0.15% 0.10% 0.25%
11:45 EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate -0.10% -0.10% 0.00%
11:45 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 0.40% 0.60% 0.75%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 31) 312K 313K 300K 304K
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Apr 1.10% 4.00% -3.00% -3.20%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI May 48.2 56 54.1
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 119B 116B 114B
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Although the single currency rebounded as ECB cut rates less than expected, euro quickly turned back south as Draghi gave dovish comments in the subsequent press conference and signal the central bank will keep rates low for an extended period of time. Bids at 1.3570-90, 1.3550-60 and 1.3525 were filled, however, buy orders are still noted at 1.3500 with stops placed below figure, fresh demand should emerge at 1.3475 and 1.3450. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3600-20 area and sizeable offers remain at 1.3645-50 with stops building up above 1.3655-65, more sell orders are located at 1.3680-1.3700 area, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3715 and 1.3730 with stops placed above 1.3735.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6750

Although the British pound retreated from 1.6793 to 1.6723, as cable found support there and has rebounded again, suggesting further consolidation above last week's low of 1.6693 would be seen with mild upside bias for another rebound to 1.6810-15 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6882-1.6693), break there would add credence to our view that low has been formed at 1.6693, bring retracement of recent decline to 1.6845-50

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 102.20

As the greenback has retreated again after faltering below this week's high of 102.80, retaining our view that consolidation would be seen and pullback to 102.30 cannot be ruled out, however, previous resistance at 102.14 should limit downside and bring another rise later, break of said resistance at 102.80 would extend recent upmove from 100.82 to resistance at 103.02 but overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 103.55-60

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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