Friday, June 20, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-20-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Loonies Surges on Strong Inflation, Retail Sales

Canadian dollar surges in early US session after release of strong inflation and sales data. CPI rose 0.5% mom 2.3% yoy in May versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 2.1%. Core CPI rose 0.5% mom, 1.7% yoy versus expectation of 0 0.2% mom, 1.5% yoy. The headline CPI is back above 2% level for two consecutive months. And core CPI is heading back to 2% target. Retail sales rose 1.1% mom in April versus consensus of 0.4% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.7% mom versus consensus of 0.3% mom. BoC left rates unchanged earlier this month, noting that "The timing and direction of the next change to the policy rate will depend on how new information influences the balance of risks." Today's set of data is pretty strong could probably trigger a move away from such neutral stance in the coming policy statements.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8911; (P) 0.8939; (R1) 0.8967; More....

USD/CHF recovers strongly ahead of 0.8907 support and intraday bias remains neutral for some more sideway trading. As noted before, we're still favoring the case that a short term top is formed at 0.9036. And the consolidation pattern from 0.8698 is likely completed at 0.9036 too. Below 0.8907 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.8698/8702 support zone. However, above 0.9036 will invalidate our view and bring stronger rise to 0.9156 resistance instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
06:00 EUR German PPI M/M May -0.20% 0.00% -0.10%
06:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y May -0.80% -0.70% -0.90%
08:00 EUR Current Account Apr 21.5B 19.4B 18.8B 19.6B
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing May 11.5B 11.8B 9.6B 9.0B
12:30 CAD CPI M/M May 0.50% 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 CAD CPI Y/Y May 2.30% 2.10% 2.00%
12:30 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M May 0.50% 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y May 1.70% 1.50% 1.40%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Apr 1.10% 0.40% -0.10%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Apr 0.70% 0.30% 0.10%
14:00 EUR Consumer Confidence Jun A -6.5 -7.1
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency extended intra-day decline in NY morning, bids at 1.3600, 1.3685-90 and 1.3575 were filled but more buy orders are reported at 1.3555 and 1.3540, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3500-20 area with stops placed below 1.3500. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3600 and in good size at 1.3635-50 and 1.3670 with stops building up above latter level, mixture of offers and stops is located further out at 1.3690-00.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.7105

Although the British pound has retreated after holding below yesterday's high of 1.7063, reckon the upper Kumo (now at 1.6994) would limit downside and near term upside risk remains for gain to 1.7090-95 (61.8% projection of 1.6738-1.7011 measuring from 1.6922), however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.7105-10 and risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later today or early next week.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Sell at 102.30

Although the greenback has continued to move higher on dollar's broad-based strength and near term upside risk remains for further gain towards resistance at 102.35, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon upside would be limited and 102.55-60 should hold and bring retreat later, below 101.70-75 would signal the fall from 102.80 has resumed for retest of 101.61 (last week's low), then towards key support at 101.43

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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