Friday, June 20, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 6-20-14

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Daily Report: Euro Dips as IMF Urged QE

While Euro recovered against other major currencies, it extended recent decline agains Swiss Franc, with EUR/CHF breaching a near term support level of 1.2162. The IMF urged ECB to consider buying assets including soveriegn bonds on a large scale to counter the stubbornly low inflation. IMF cheif Lagarde said that "inflation is worryingly low across the euro-area countries." She welcomed recent stimulus measures announced by ECB, but she emphasized that "we are not at the end of the road."In a report, IMF note that new asset purcahses would "boost confidence, improve corporate and household balance sheets, and stimulate bank lending."

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2150; (P) 1.2167; (R1) 1.2184; More...

The breach of 1.2162 support suggests deeper decline is underway in EUR/CHF. Intraday bias is on the downside for 1.2140 support first. Break will target 1.2103 low and below. We'd expect strong support below 1.21 handle to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.2191 resistance will turn bias back to the upside to extend recent sideway consolidation. But still, as long as 1.2249 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout is expected.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
6:00 EUR German PPI M/M May -0.20% 0.00% -0.10%
6:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y May -0.80% -0.70% -0.90%
8:00 EUR Current Account Apr 19.4B 18.8B
8:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing May 11.8B 9.6B
12:30 CAD CPI M/M May 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 CAD CPI Y/Y May 2.10% 2.00%
12:30 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M May 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y May 1.50% 1.40%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Apr 0.40% -0.10%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Apr 0.30% 0.10%
14:00 EUR Consumer Confidence Jun A -6.5 -7.1
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency extended this week's rise and offers at 1.3640 were filled, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.3650 and 1.3670 with stops building up above latter level, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3690-00 with more stops expected above figure. On the downside, bids remain at 1.3600 and 1.3685-90, more buy orders are reported at 1.3575, 1.3555 and 1.3540, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3500-20 area with stops placed below 1.3500.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.3580

As the single currency rebounded after finding support at 1.3602 yesterday, as euro has retreated in European morning after faltering below yesterday's high of 1.3643, suggesting further consolidation below this level would bee seen and pullback to the upper Kumo (now at 1.3581) cannot be ruled out but renewed buying interest should emerge there and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance at 1.3643 would extend the rise from 1.3503 for gain to 1.3677 resistance

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell at 102.10

The greenback has remained confined within narrow range but still reckon the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 102.11) would limit upside and bring another decline, a break of 101.70-75 would signal the fall from 102.80 has resumed for retest of 101.61 (last week's low), then towards key support at 101.43, having said that, break there is needed to confirm the rise from 100.82 has ended at 102.80 earlier and further decline towards 101.10-20 would follow.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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