Monday, March 31, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 4-1-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: RBA on Hold, Fed Yellen Lifted Sentiments

The Australian dollar edges mildly higher after RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 2.50% as widely expected. Most importantly, the central bank reiterated that "the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates". Overall, the statement was like a carbon copy of the March statement and didn't offer any new information. Aussie quickly settles back into familiar range after some knee jerk reactions and would likely stay consolidative before other main events of the week.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4822; (P) 1.4889; (R1) 1.4931; More...

A temporary low is formed at 1.4778 in EUR/AUD and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidations could be seen for a while. But we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.5086 minor resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.4778 will extend the whole decline from 1.5831 to 100% projection of 1.5831 to 1.4987 from 1.5536 at 1.4692 next.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q1 17 19 16
23:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q1 24 25 20
1:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI Mar 50.3 50.1 50.2
1:45 CNY HSBC/Manufacturing PMI Mar F 48 48.5 48.5
3:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
7:30 CHF SVME-PMI Mar 56.7 57.6
7:45 EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI Mar 52.2 52.3
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Mar -10K -14K
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Mar 6.80% 6.80%
8:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar F 53 53
8:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate Feb P 12.90% 12.90%
8:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Mar 56.5 56.9
9:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb 12.00% 12.00%
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Feb 0.70% 1.40%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Feb 2.30% 2.60%
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Mar 54 53.2
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Mar 59 60
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Feb 0.10% 0.10%
   
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Euro jumped today in European session, offers at 1.3775-85 and 1.3800 were filled, however, sell orders are still noted from 1.3810 all the way up to 1.3850, mixtures of offers and stops are located at 1.3870 and 1.3900. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3750-60 and in good size at 1.3725-35, more buy orders are reported at 1.3695-10, buying interest is tipped at 1.3660-70 with bigger stops placed below 1.3650.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.1170

As the greenback has remained under pressure, suggesting near term downside risk remains for the fall from 1.1279 top (wave (v) of iii ) to bring correction of recent upmove in wave iv, below 1.1000 would extend weakness to 1.0950 but near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.0900 and reckon 1.0850-60 would hold from here, bring eventual upmove in wave v

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.8280

As the single currency has rebounded after holding above last week's low of 0.8246, retaining our near term bullishness and consolidation with mild upside bias remains, above previous support at 0.8325-30 would suggest low is possibly formed and bring rebound to 0.8370 but only break of resistance at 0.8400 (last week's high) would signal another leg of rise from 0.8158 low is underway for at least a strong retracement of recent decline to 0.8425-30

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-31-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: CAD Jumps on GDP, Euro Shrug Off Weak CPI

The Canadian dollar soars in early US session as GDP data beat expectation. GDP grew 0.5% mom in January versus consensus of 0.4% mom. Also, the data means the economy has recovered December's -0.5% mom loss. The details were optimistic as manufacturing grew 2.0% while energy grew 1.2%. Retails, which was hit hard in December due to weather, staged a strong rebound of 1.3%. Other sectors also showed growth, except agriculture and utilities. USD/CAD dips to as low as 1.1002 so far and is set to have a test on last week's low of 1.1000. Break will resume the decline from 1.1278 and target 1.0909 key support level.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3713; (P) 1.3742 (R1) 1.3781; More....

EUR/USD's recovers strongly today and is pressing 4 hours 55 EMA for the moment. As noted before, decline from 1.3966 is viewed as a correction only. Bullish convergence condition argues that it could be completed at 1.3704 already. Focus is back on 1.3875 minor resistance and bring will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3966 first and then resume larger rise from 1.2755. At this point, there is no indication of trend reversal and thus, even in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 1.3642 contain downside. However, we'd also like to point out the possibility that rise from 1.2755 could have completed with five waves up to 1.3966. Break of 1.3642 will at least confirm near term reversal and target 1.3476 support next.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Feb -1.70% -8.30% -8.60%
23:15 JPY Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Mar 53.9 55.5
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Feb P -2.30% 3.60% 3.80%
00:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Mar 67.3 70.8
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Feb 1.00% 6.10% 12.30%
07:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Mar 1.99 2.05 2.03
08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Feb 70.3K 75.0K 76.9K 76.8K
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Feb 0.70% 0.50% 0.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Mar 0.50% 0.60% 0.70%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jan 0.50% 0.40% -0.50%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Mar 55.9 58.5 59.8
   
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Euro jumped today in European session, offers at 1.3775-85 and 1.3800 were filled, however, sell orders are still noted from 1.3810 all the way up to 1.3850, mixtures of offers and stops are located at 1.3870 and 1.3900. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3750-60 and in good size at 1.3725-35, more buy orders are reported at 1.3695-10, buying interest is tipped at 1.3660-70 with bigger stops placed below 1.3650.

Read more...

Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6580

Despite intra-day initial brief rise to 1.6659, lack of follow through buying suggests consolidation would be seen and pullback to 1.6595-00 and possibly the lower Kumo (now at 1.6579) cannot be ruled, however, support at 1.6555 should contain downside and bring another rally. Above said resistance would extend last week's rise from 1.6460 to 1.6718 resistance

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3845

Despite intra-day brief retreat to 1.3722, as the single currency found renewed buying interest above last week's low of 1.3705 and has staged a strong rebound, suggesting a temporary low has been formed there and near term upside risk remains for retracement of recent fall to 1.3810, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.3836-45 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3967-1.3705 and previous resistance) and bring another decline.

Read more...

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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