Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 6-18-14

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: BoE Minutes and FOMC Rate Decision in Focus Today

Dollar remains mixed as markets awaiting FOMC rate decision today. The dollar index is stuck in tight range below 81.02 for nearly two weeks and is struggling at around 80.6 for the moment. Other financial markets are lacking a clear direction too. DOW closed mildly higher by 0.16% at 16808.49 but is stuck in range below 16970.17 record high. Similar picture is seen in S&P 500 as it's staying in range below 1955.55 record high and closed at 1941.99. 30 year yield rose to close at 3.446 overnight but is staying in range below near term resistance of 3.492. The more exciting movement was seen in 10 year yield which closed strongly at 2.655, touching near term resistance of 2.655. In short, the markets will need some stimulus to get a firm direction.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0841; (P) 1.0858; (R1) 1.0876; More...

USD/CAD's fall lost momentum ahead of 1.0813 support and recovered. As it's staying in range trading from 1.0813, intraday bias remains neutral. More sideway consolidation could be seen. Overall, with 1.1052 resistance intact, outlook stays bearish and an eventual downside breakout is still anticipated. Below 1.0813 will extend the corrective decline from 1.1278 to 50% retracement of 1.0181 to 1.1278 at 1.0730. We'll look for reversal signal below there. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours and daily MACD, break of 1.1052 will confirm reversal and target 1.1278 again.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Current Account Q/Q Q1 $1.41B $1.42B $-1.43B $'-1.51B
23:50 JPY BoJ Minutes
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) May -0.86T -1.01T -0.84T -0.88T
0:00 AUD Leading Indicator Apr -0.10% 0.00%
0:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M May 0.10% -0.50%
8:30 GBP BoE Minutes 0--0--9 0--0--9
9:00 CHF ZEW Expectations Jun 10 7.4
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Apr -0.40%
12:30 USD Current Account Q1 $-95.9B $-81.1B
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.6M
18:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
18:30 USD FOMC press conference
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency found decent demand just above last week's low of 1.3512 and has rebounded quite strongly, offers at 1.3560 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.3580-85 and 1.3600-10, more selling interest is tipped at 1.3625 and 1.3640-50, some sellers are expected further out at 1.3665-75 and 1.3680-1.3700 area. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3530 and in good size at 1.3500-10 with sizeable stops building up below 1.3500, more buying interest is located at 1.3475 and 1.3450, fresh demand should emerge further out at 1.3435 and 1.3400-20 area.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold short entered at 1.0920

Despite yesterday's fall to 1.0836, as the greenback has rebounded after holding above indicated support at 1.0814, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen, however, reckon 1.0900 would limit upside and bring another decline later, a break below said support at 1.0814 would indicate the c leg of wave iv is in progress and extend the decline from 1.1279 (wave iii top) for a stronger correction of early upmove to 1.0800, then towards 1.0730-40

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF - Hold short entered at 0.8990

Dollar's rebound after intra-day initial brief fall to 0.8965 suggests further consolidation would be seen, however, still reckon yesterday's high of 0.9013 would limit upside and bring another fall, break of support at 0.8960 (Friday's low) would add credence to our view that rebound from 0.8908 has ended at 0.9013, bring further consolidation within recent established range of 0.8908-0.9037, then weakness to 0.8920 would be seen

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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