Monday, June 2, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-2-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Stock Retreats on ISM Disappointment, Dollar Range Bound

S&P 500 edged to new record high of 1925.09 in early US session but turned negative after disappointing data from US. The ISM manufacturing index dropped to 53.2 in May versus expectation of a rise to 55.5. The details were also weak with deterioration in production, new orders, inventories and supplier deliveries. And more importantly, the employment component dropped from 54.7 to 51.9. Price paid, on the other hand, jumped sharply to 60. Also released in US, construction spending rose 0.2% mom in April. In the currency markets, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF are stuck in tight range. USD/JPY edged higher today but lacks follow through momentum so far.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 101.53; (P) 101.69; (R1) 101.88; More...

USD/JPY's rebound from 100.82 extends to as high as 102.28 so far today but is held below 102.36 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral first. As long as 102.36 resistance holds, deeper decline is still expected. Below 101.42 will target 100.75 key support. Break there will confirm resumption of whole decline from 105.41 and should target 100% projection of 104.12 to 101.32 from 103.01 at 100.21 However, note again that 100.61/75 represents a key support zone. And, bullish convergence condition is seen in 4 hours MACD. Break of 102.36 will indicate near term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 103.01 and above.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Capital Spending Q1 7.40% 5.80% 4.00%
00:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M May 0.30% 0.40%
01:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Apr -5.60% 2.00% -3.50% -4.80%
01:35 JPY Manufacturing PMI May F 49.9 49.9 49.9
07:30 CHF SVME-PMI May 52.5 55.5 55.8
08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI May F 52.2 52.5 52.5
08:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing May 57 57 57.3
08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Apr 62.9K 64.5k 67.1K 66.6K
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Apr -0.20% 0.30% -2.30%
12:00 EUR German CPI M/M May P -0.10% 0.10% -0.20%
12:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y May P 0.90% 1.10% 1.30%
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing May 53.2 55.5 54.9
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid May 60 56.9 56.5
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Apr 0.20% 0.70% 0.20%
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency absorbed bids at 1.3600 but buy orders are still noted at 1.3575-85, more bids are tipped further out at 1.3550-60 (stops below barrier at 1.3550), fresh demand should emerge around 1.3525 and 1.3500 (another barrier). On the upside, offers are seen from 1.3635 up to 1.3665 with stops placed above 1.3670, more sell orders are expected at 1.3680-1.3700 area, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3715 and 1.3730 with stops placed above 1.3735.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Hold long entered at 1.3620

Although the single currency has retreated after running into resistance at 1.3650 on Friday, as long as last week's low at 1.3586 holds, further consolidation would be seen  with mild upside bias for another rebound, above said resistance would bring test of indicated resistance at 1.3669, however, break of this last week's high is needed to add credence to our view that low is formed, bring retracement of recent decline to 1.3700, then towards previous resistance at 1.3734

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 101.60

Current breach of previous resistance at 102.14 confirms the rise from 100.82 is still in progress and further gain to previous resistance at 102.36 would be seen, break there would encourage for headway to 102.49-50 (61.8% projection of 100.82-102.05 measuring from 101.73) and possibly towards 102.75-80, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside and price should falter well below resistance at 103.02.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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