Monday, June 30, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-30-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Mildly Lower But Stays in Range

Dollar is mildly lower against European majors today in otherwise rather dull markets. USD/CHF's break of 0.8907 support last week was taken as a sign of weakness of the greenback. However, EUR/USD and GBP/USD are still held below near term resistance of 1.3676 and 1.7062 respectively. Thus, there is no confirmation in the selloff in dollar yet. The greenback will face tests from some important economic data in a holiday shortened week this week. And that include ISM indices as well as the non-farm payroll report. We might see dollar's decline gather some momentum should there be disappointments in the data.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7008; (P) 1.7030; (R1) 1.7053; More...

GBP/USD rises mildly today but stays in range of 1.6918/7062 and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 1.6918 support holds, further rally is still expected. Above 1.7062 will target next key long term fibonacci level at 1.7332. We'd expect loss of momentum as it approaches this level and reverse from there. On the downside, break of 1.6918 will be the first sign of trend reversal and will turn bias to the downside for 1.6692 support for confirmation.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M May -4.60% 1.50% 1.90%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M May P 0.50% 0.90% -2.80%
01:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Jun 42.8 53.5
06:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y May -15.00% -10.10% -3.30%
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y May 1.00% 0.70% 0.80% 0.70%
08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals May 62K 62K 62.9K
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M May -0.10% 0.20% -0.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jun 0.50% 0.60% 0.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Jun A 0.80% 0.70% 0.70%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Apr 0.10% 0.20% 0.10%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Jun 62.6 63.2 65.5
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M May 6.1% 1.40% 0.40%
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to move higher and mixture of offers and stops at 1.3670-75 (stops above) is in focus, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.3690-00, sizeable selling interest is expected at 1.3690-00 with more stops tipped above 1.3705, sellers are waiting further out at 1.3725-30 and 1.3750-60. On the downside, bids remain at 1.3640 and 1.3600-10, good size buy orders remain at 1.3570-75 and 1.3545-50, more buying interest is located at 1.3520-30, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.3500-10.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6985

As the British pound has risen again after holding above Friday's low of 1.7007. suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and may extend further gain to 1.7090-95 (61.8% projection of 1.6738-1.7011 measuring from 1.6922), then towards 1.7105-15 before correction, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.7130 and reckon 1.7150 would hold from here, bring retreat later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Sell at 0.8920

Current breach of previous support at 0.8908 suggests the erratic decline from 0.9037 top is still in progress and downside bias remains for this move to bring retracement of early rise to support at 0.8883, then towards 0.8850, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 0.8820 and  reckon minor support at 0.8800 would remain intact, bring rebound later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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