Monday, June 9, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 6-10-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Risk Appetite Continues, Forex Mixed

Solid risk appetite remained the main theme in the financial markets. S&P 500 made the fourth straight record closing at 1951.27 while DOW made its third at 16943.1. Asian equities generally followed with the MSCI AP ex Japan index hitting the highest level since July 2011. Nonetheless, Nikkei faced strong resistance above 15000 handle as it dropped -0.7% to 15012.41. The currency markets are relatively steady though. The dollar index recovered overnight but struggles to gather further momentum above 80.6 and it's staying in its near term range. European majors weakened mildly as the week started by are staying in right range above last week's low. Yen extended the post GDP recovery but it's rally is being limited by risk appetite.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0889; (P) 1.0915; (R1) 1.0929; More...

USD/CAD dips mildly today but stays inside range of 1.0813/0960. Intraday bias remains neutral. The consolidation pattern from 1.0813 might extend further. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited below 1.1052 to bring fall resumption eventually. Break of 1.0813 will extend the corrective decline from 1.1278 to 50% retracement of 1.0181 to 1.1278 at 1.0730. We'll look for reversal signal below there. Also, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours and daily MACD, break of 1.1052 will confirm reversal and target 1.1278 again.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Sales Monitor Y/Y May 0.50% 1.60% 4.20%
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y May 3.30% 3.20% 3.40% 3.50%
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Apr -5.40% -3.50% 2.40%
1:30 AUD Home Loans Apr 0.00% 0.20% -0.90% -0.80%
1:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence May 7 6 7
1:30 CNY CPI Y/Y May 2.50% 2.40% 1.80%
1:30 CNY PPI Y/Y May -1.40% -1.50% -2.00%
5:45 CHF Unemployment Rate May 3.10% 3.20%
6:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y May P 48.70%
7:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Apr 3.50% 3.00%
8:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Apr 0.40% -0.10%
8:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Apr 2.80% 2.30%
8:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Apr 0.40% 0.50%
8:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Apr 4.00% 3.30%
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate May 1.00%
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Apr 0.50% 1.10%
23:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q2 14.1 12.5
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI M/M May 0.10% 2.80%
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency reversed intra-day initial rise and dropped quite sharply from 1.3669 throughout the European session in part due to disappointing Eurozone data, bids at 1.3620 and 1.3600 were filled, however, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3575, 1.3550-60 and 1.3525, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.3500 with buyers expected around 1.3475 and 1.3450. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3625-30 and in good size at 1.3665-75, more sell orders are tipped at 1.3680-1.3700 area with stops expected above barrier at figure, selling interest is seen at 1.3725-35 and 1.3740-50 (more stops above).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold short entered at 1.0920

As the greenback has retreated after holding below last week's high of 1.0960, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.0870-75 (previous resistance) cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to signal top is formed and bring another fall towards 1.0814 support. Looking ahead, only break there would indicate the c leg of wave iv is in progress and extend the decline from 1.1279 (wave iii top) for a stronger correction of early upmove to 1.0800, then towards 1.0730-40

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.8090

Although the single currency has retreated quite sharply today, as long as last week's low of 0.8065 holds, further consolidation would be seen and mild upside bias remains for another rebound, above 0.8140 would suggest low is possibly formed, bring test of resistance at 0.8153 but break there is needed to signal wave v has ended at 0.8065 and bring stronger rebound towards 0.8184 resistance.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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