Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 6-4-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Jumps against Yen as Yield Soars

Dollar surged against the broadly weak Japanese yen overnight on the bad of strong rebound in treasury yields. Indeed, 10 year yield had the biggest 4-day jumps since March and had a strong close at 2.593. That was impressive comparing to last week's low of 2.402. 30 year yield also closed strongly at 3.435, comparing to last week's low of 3.267. Dollar index breached 80.60 resistance this week which carries near term bullish implications. In the stock markets, S&P 500 close slightly down by -0.73 pts at 1924.24, staying close to record high. Overall, traders seem to be optimistic that this week's heavy weight data would show the underlying health of the US economy.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 101.92; (P) 102.20; (R1) 102.64; More...

USD/JPY rises to as high as 102.77 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current development suggests that consolidation pattern from 100.75 is still in progress with rise from 100.82 as the third leg. Further rise would be seen to 103.01 resistance and above. We'd expect strong resistance from 104.12 to limit upside and bring reversal. Below 102.13 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 100.75.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y May -1.40% -1.30% -1.40%
1:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q1 1.10% 0.90% 0.80%
8:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI May F 53.5 53.5
8:30 GBP Services PMI May 58.2 58.7
9:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 P 0.20% 0.20%
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Apr -0.10% -0.20%
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Apr -1.20% -1.60%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change May 208K 220K
12:30 USD Trade Balance Apr -$40.6B -$40.4B
12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Apr 0.10B 0.08B
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q1 F -2.60% -1.70%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q1 F 4.80% 4.20%
14:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite May 55.5 55.2
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.7M
18:00 USD Federal Reserve Beige Book
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency rebounded today as some traders pre-positioned ahead of ECB, offers at 1.3615-25 and 1.3640-45 were filled but more sell orders are still seen at 1.3655-65 and from 1.3680 up to 1.3700. selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3715 and 1.3730 with stops placed above 1.3735. On the downside, bids are now noted at 1.3600-10 and decent demand remains at 1.3575-85, more bids are tipped further out at 1.3550-60 (stops below barrier at 1.3550), 1.3525 and 1.3500 (another barrier).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8050

Although the single currency has rebounded again after intra-day fall to 0.8107, reckon resistance at 0.8184 would limit upside and near term downside risk remains for recent decline to resume after consolidation, break of said support at 0.8107 would bring retest of last month's low at 0.8081, below there would extend weakness to 0.8050-55, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below there and this minor wave v would be limited to 0.8015-20, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY - Buy at 101.80

As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday's rally above previous resistance at 102.14, confirming our view that the rise from 100.82 is still in progress and further gain to 102.75-87 (100% projection of 100.82-102.14 measuring from 101.43 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 104.13-100.82) would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to resistance at 103.02 and price should falter below 103.40-50.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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