Saturday, November 30, 2013

Action Insight Weeky Report 11-30-13

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Yen Tumbled Before Month Close on BoJ Speculations, Dollar to Face Key Economic Data

Yen's broad based weakness continued last week on the back of extended rally in risk markets as well as expectation of further stimulus from BoJ. US equities continued to make new record high with DOW hitting as high as 16174.51 while S&P 500 hit 1813.55. German DAX also hit new record high 9424.62. US treasuries attempted to stage a recovery during the markets but failed lacked follow through momentum. 10 year yield ended the week mildly lower at 2.741% while 30 year yield closed lower at 3.808%. No much development were seen in commodity markets with crude oil extending recent market towards 90 psychological level. Gold was soft in range around 1250 but there was no follow through selling below there. Dollar index is still struggling in consolidative pattern around 55 days EMA and stayed above 80.50.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD's recovery from 1.3294 extended higher last week. While it started to lose upside momentum again, further rise could be seen as long as 1.3520 minor support holds, towards 100% projection of 1.3294 to 1.3578 from 1.3399 at 1.3683. But we'd expect strong resistance above there, and below 1.3832, to limit upside to complete the rebound. Fall from 1.3832 is expected to resume later and break of 1.3520 will turn bias to the downside for 1.3399 and below first.

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Suggested Readings

 

The Week in Review and Outlook

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Friday, November 29, 2013

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-29-13

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: EUR/CHF Dives on Netherlands Downgrade

Swiss Franc jumps against Euro today after S&P lowered the Netherlands' credit rating from AAA to AA+. That left Germany, Finland and Luxembourg as the only AAA countries in the Eurozone. S&P noted that the Netherlands' real GDP per capital trend growth is "persistently lower than that of peers at similarly high levels of economic developments". And, "strong contribution of net exports to growth has not been enough to offset a weak domestic economy". The rating agency said it didn't anticipate real economic output to surpass 2008 levels before 2017. On, the other hand, Swiss franc was supported by KOF leading indicator, which rose to 1.85 in November, hitting the highest level since July 2011. That's above expectation of 1.81. KOF said that the positive tendencies dominate in Switzerland. EUR/CHF dives through 1.23 level in European session but is held within recent range above 1.2284 so far.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9035; (P) 0.9060; (R1) 0.9081; More...

USD/CHF drops further to as low as 0.9028 so far today, just inch above mentioned 61.8% retracement of 0.8889 to 0.9249 at 0.9027. Deeper decline could still be seen. But we'd expect strong support between 0.8889 and 0.9027 to contain downside to finish the pull back from 0.9249 and bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9092 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9249.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Oct -0.60% 1.70% 1.40%
23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Nov 55.1 54.2
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Oct 0.90% 1.00% 3.70%
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Oct 4.00% 3.90% 4.00%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Oct 0.90% 0.90% 0.70%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Nov 0.60% 0.40% 0.30%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Oct P 0.50% 2.00% 1.30%
00:05 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Nov -12 -10 -11
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Oct 7.10% 5.00% 19.40%
07:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Oct -0.80% 0.50% -0.40% -0.60%
08:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Nov 1.85 1.81 1.72 1.71
09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Oct 67.7K 68.5K 66.7K 66.9K
09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Oct 0.10% 1.10% 0.60%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct 12.10% 12.20% 12.20%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Nov 0.90% 0.80% 0.70%
13:30 CAD GDP M/M Sep 0.30% 0.10% 0.30%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency maintained a firm undertone and marginal gain from here cannot be ruled out, however, selling interest is still seen around 1.3625 and 1.3640-50 (more stops above barrier at 1.3650), offers are reported at 1.3670, 1.3700 and further out at 1.3750. On the downside, bids remain at 1.3585-90 and 1.3565, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3550 and 1.3510-20, fresh demand should emerge from 1.3495 down to 1.3475 with stops building up below 1.3470-75 and 1.3460.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6265

As the British pound has retreated after rising to 1.6374 earlier today and broke below the Kijun-Sen, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and correction to 1.6295-00 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon support at 1.6258 would contain downside and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance at 1.6374 would extend recent upmove to 1.6395-00

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3650 or on break of 1.3550

Although the single currency edged higher today and near term upside risk remains for recent upmove to extend gain to 1.3627-30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3833-1.3295), as this move from 1.3295 is still viewed as correction of early fall from 1.3833, reckon 1.3650-55 (100% projection of 1.3399-1.3560 measuring from 1.3490) would limit upside and bring another decline later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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Thursday, November 28, 2013

Action Insight Daily Report 11-29-13

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Down Trend Continues on BoJ Speculations

Yen selloff remains the main theme in quiet holiday trading today. Inflation data released from Japan today showed national CPI core accelerated to 0.9% yoy in October, inline with expectation. Tokyo CPI core accelerated to 0.6% yoy in November, above expectation of 0.4% yoy. Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.1 in November. However, other economic data were disappointing. Household spending rose 0.9% yoy in October versus expectation of 1.0%. Industrial production rose 0.5% mom, versus expectation of 2.0%. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.0% versus expectation of a drop to 3.9%. GBP/JPY remains the biggest gainer this month and this week, continuing to make multi-year high and is heading to long term fibonacci level at 168.11. EUR/JPY also head closer to 140 psychological level. USD/JPY also strengthens but is kept below this year's high of 103.73.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.73; (P) 138.25; (R1) 139.23; More...

EUR/JPY rally continues today and breaches 139.21 resistance to as high as 139.70 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rally should target 140.98 long term fibonacci level next. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to bring reversal. But break of 137.98 is needed to be the first signal of short term topping. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

Read more...

Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Oct -0.60% 1.70% 1.40%
23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Nov 55.1 54.2
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Oct 0.90% 1.00% 3.70%
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Oct 4.00% 3.90% 4.00%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Oct 0.90% 0.90% 0.70%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Nov 0.60% 0.40% 0.30%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Oct P 0.50% 2.00% 1.30%
0:05 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Nov -12 -10 -11
5:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Oct 5.00% 19.40%
7:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Oct 0.50% -0.40%
8:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Nov 1.81 1.72
9:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Oct 68.5K 66.7K
9:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Oct 1.10% 0.60%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct 12.20% 12.20%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Nov 0.80% 0.70%
13:30 CAD GDP M/M Sep 0.10% 0.30%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency edged higher in European session, offers at 1.3590-1.3610 were filled, stops above 1.3620 are in focus, fresh selling interest should emerge around 1.3625 and 1.3640-50 (more stops above next barrier at 1.3650). On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3585-90 and 1.3570, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3555-60 and 1.3525-30, fresh demand should emerge from 1.3495 down to 1.3475 with stops building up below 1.3470-75.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.0525

As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday's rally, adding credence to our view that recent upmove from 1.0182 low (wave (c) bottom) is still in progress and may bring a retest of recent high of 1.0609, above there would encourage for further gain to 1.0650-60 and possibly towards 1.0700-10, however, overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond latter level

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.8375

As the single currency has remained under pressure after meeting renewed selling interest at 0.8391 earlier this week, our bearishness remains for early decline to resume after consolidation, bring a retest of recent low of 0.8300, however, break of this support is needed to confirm recent decline from 0.8815 (wave iii top) has resumed for a stronger correction of early upmove in wave iv towards 0.8260-65 

Read more...

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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