Monday, June 2, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 6-3-14

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Daily Report: Aussie Recovers as RBA on Hold, Dollar Firm after ISM Revision

Australian dollar rebounds today as RBA left rates unchanged as widely expected and as Asian equities surged higher. RBA kept the cash rate at 2.50% and maintained that "the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates." The accompanying statement was little changed from the May one. The central bank noted that "growth looks to have been somewhat firmer around the turn of the year" due to "very strong increases in resource exports". But it expected such growth to slow in the coming quarters. And it expected inflation to be "consistent with the target over the next one to two years". And it reiterated that "the exchange rate remains high by historical standards". Also released from Australia, retail sales rose less than expected by 0.2% mom in April, current account deficit narrowed to AUD -5.7b in Q1.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9215; (P) 0.9264; (R1) 0.9294; More...

AUD/USD recovers ahead of 0.9211 support and intraday bias remains neutral. Consolidations from 0.9460 is still in progress. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out and break of 0.9201 could be seen. But, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8659 to 0.9460 at 0.9154 and bring rally resumption. On the upside, above 0.9408 will argue that rise from 0.8659 is finally resuming for 0.9460 and above.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Terms of Trade Index Q/Q Q1 1.80% 2.00% 2.30% 2.50%
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y May 45.60% 51.20% 48.50%
1:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI May 55.5 54.8
1:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Apr 0.20% 0.30% 0.10%
1:30 AUD Current Account Balance (AUD) Q1 -5.7B -7.0B -10.1B -11.7B
1:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Apr 0.90% 0.70%
1:45 CNY HSBC China Manufacturing PMI May F 49.4 49.7 49.7
4:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
8:30 GBP Construction PMI May 61 60.8
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y May 0.60%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Apr 11.80% 11.80%
14:00 USD Factory Orders Apr 0.50% 1.10%
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency absorbed bids at 1.3600 but buy orders are still noted at 1.3575-85, more bids are tipped further out at 1.3550-60 (stops below barrier at 1.3550), fresh demand should emerge around 1.3525 and 1.3500 (another barrier). On the upside, offers are seen from 1.3635 up to 1.3665 with stops placed above 1.3670, more sell orders are expected at 1.3680-1.3700 area, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3715 and 1.3730 with stops placed above 1.3735.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8050

Euro's retreat after rising to 0.8153 late last week suggests consolidation would be seen and near term downside risk remains for recent decline to resume later, break of support at 0.8081 would extend weakness to 0.8050-55, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below there and reckon this minor wave v would be limited to 0.8015-20, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.0920

As the greenback has staged another rebound today, retaining our view that further consolidation above support at 1.0814 would be seen and stronger recovery to 1.0920 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon resistance at 1.0942 would hold and bring another decline. A break of said support at 1.0814 would signal the c leg of wave iv is still in progress and extend the decline from 1.1279 (wave iii top) for a stronger correction of early upmove to 1.0800, then towards 1.0730-40

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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