Monday, February 3, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 2-4-14

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Daily Report: Aussie Rebounds as RBA Rules Out Rate Cut, Yen Dominates on Risk Aversion Australian dollar recovers today after RBA left rates unchanged at 2.50% as widely expected. Most importantly, the central noted in the statement that "on present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates." That is, the RBA is somewhat ruling out the case for another rate cut this year. RBA expected economy to remain below trend and unemployment to rise further before it peaks. Meanwhile, it also noted that the Q4 inflation was higher than expected as "explained in part by faster than anticipated pass-through of the lower exchange rate". Nonetheless, RBA still expects inflation to be consistent with 2-3% target over the next two years. AUD/USD is having its sight on 0.8887 near term resistance now and a strong break there will build up the case of a near term trend reversal. In such case, we'd likely see a test on 0.9085 resistance next. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
AUD/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8717; (P) 0.8775; (R1) 0.8812; More... AUD/USD's rebound from 0.8659 extends higher today and intraday bias is now mildly on the upside for 0.8887 resistance. Break will argues that a short term bottom is at least in place at 0.8659. Considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, the larger trend might be reversing too. In such case, stronger rally should be seen to 0.9085 resistance for confirmation. On the downside though, below 0.8729 minor support will turn bias back to the downside and extend the larger fall to 61.8% projection of 0.9757 to 0.8821 from 0.9085 at 0.8507, which is close to next long term fibonacci level at 0.8544. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous
23:50	JPY	Monetary Base Y/Y Jan	51.90%	47.20%	46.60%
3:30	AUD	RBA Rate Decision	2.50%	2.50%	2.50%
9:30	GBP	PMI Construction Jan		61.6	62.1
10:00	EUR	Eurozone PPI M/M Dec		0.10%	-0.10%
10:00	EUR	Eurozone PPI Y/Y Dec		-0.90%	-1.20%
15:00	USD	Factory Orders Dec		0.70%	1.80%

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound fell quite sharply today in London, stops below 1.6390 were tripped, buy orders at 1.6370-80 and 1.6350 as well as stops below 1.6340 were cleared, some bids are reported at 1.6310-20 with stops expected below 1.6300, fresh demand should emerge around 1.6270 and 1.6250. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.6380 and 1.6400-10, sizeable sell orders remain at 1.6440-50 and 1.6470-80, more selling interest is expected at 1.6500-20 area and further out at 1.6550-70 region.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8240

Despite falling to 0.8188 on Friday, the subsequent strong rebound has retained our view that further consolidation above recent low of 0.8168 would be seen and mild upside bias remains for test of resistance at 0.8306 but break there is needed to signal a temporary low has been formed at 0.8168, bring retracement of recent decline towards resistance at 0.8349, break there would encourage for further subsequent gain towards resistance at 0.8393 later.

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.1140

Although the greenback resumed recent upmove to 1.1224 late last week, the subsequent retreat suggest a temporary top is possibly formed there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for test of 1.1032 support, however, a sustained breach below there is needed to add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.0990-00 and possibly towards support at 1.0950-55.