Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-17-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Mildly Higher after CPI, Sterling Staying in Range

Dollar is mildly higher in early US session after stronger than expected inflation data. CPI accelerated to 2.1% yoy in May versus consensus of 2.0% yoy. That's the highest reading since October 2012. The monthly advance of 0.4% was the largest since February 2013. CPI core jumped to 2.0% yoy versus expectation of 1.8% yoy. Housing starts dropped to 1.001m annualized rate in May while building permits also dropped to 0.991m annualized. US stock futures point to slightly lower opening and would likely extend recent consolidations.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6957; (P) 1.6983; (R1) 1.7008; More...

A temporary top is in place at 1.7010 in GBP/USD and intraday bias is turned neutral for some sideway trading. Downside of consolidation should be contained above 1.6845 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. The larger rally from 1.4813 is still in progress and above 1.7010 will target 1.7043 key resistance. We'll look for reversal signal again above 1.7043 and as GBP/USD approaches long term fibonacci level of 1.7332.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 AUD RBA Minutes
05:45 CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
07:15 CHF Producer and Import Prices M/M May 0.10% 0.10% -0.30%
07:15 CHF Producer and Import Prices Y/Y May -0.80% -0.80% -1.20%
08:30 GBP CPI M/M May -0.10% 0.20% 0.40%
08:30 GBP CPI Y/Y May 1.50% 1.70% 1.80%
08:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y May 1.60% 1.70% 2.00%
08:30 GBP RPI Y/Y May 2.40% 2.50% 2.50%
08:30 GBP RPI M/M May 0.10% 0.20% 0.40%
08:30 GBP PPI - Input M/M May -0.90% 0.20% -1.10% -0.90%
08:30 GBP PPI - Input Y/Y May 5.00% -4.10% -5.50% -5.30%
08:30 GBP PPI - Output M/M May -0.10% 0.20% 0.00%
08:30 GBP PPI - Output Y/Y May 0.50% 0.80% 0.60%
08:30 GBP PPI Core Output M/M May 0.00% 0.10% 0.00%
08:30 GBP PPI Core Output Y/Y May 1.00% 1.10% 1.00%
09:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment Jun 29.8 35 33.1
09:00 EUR German ZEW Current Situation Jun 67.7 62.6 62.1
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Jun 58.4 59.6 55.2
12:30 USD CPI M/M May 0.40% 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y May 2.10% 2.00% 2.00%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M May 0.30% 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y May 2.00% 1.80% 1.80%
12:30 USD Housing Starts M/M May 1.001M 1.034M 1.072M 1.071M
12:30 USD Building Permits M/M May 0.991M 1.075M 1.080M
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency found decent demand just above last week's low of 1.3512 and has rebounded quite strongly, offers at 1.3560 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.3580-85 and 1.3600-10, more selling interest is tipped at 1.3625 and 1.3640-50, some sellers are expected further out at 1.3665-75 and 1.3680-1.3700 area. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3530 and in good size at 1.3500-10 with sizeable stops building up below 1.3500, more buying interest is located at 1.3475 and 1.3450, fresh demand should emerge further out at 1.3435 and 1.3400-20 area.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold short entered at 0.8990

Although the greenback has rebounded after holding above Friday's low of 0.8960 and consolidation would be seen, reckon yesterday's high of 0.9013 would limit upside and bring another fall, break of said support at 0.8960 would add credence to our view that rebound from 0.8908 has ended at 0.9013, bring further consolidation within recent established range of 0.8908-0.9037, then weakness to 0.8920 would be seen

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Sell at 102.50

Dollar's rebound after finding support at 101.72 yesterday has retained our view that further consolidation above last week's low of 101.61 would be seen and another corrective bounce to 102.35-40 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 102.60-65 would cap upside and bring another decline later. A break of said support at 101.61 (last week's low) would extend the fall from 102.80 towards key support at 101.43

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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