Friday, June 27, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 6-27-14

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Daily Report: Yen Rises after Solid Data, NZD Jumps

The Japanese yen strengthens after a batch of mostly positive economic data. National CPI core rose 3.4% yoy in May, and Tokyo CPI core rose 2.8% yoy in June. Both were inline with expectation. Retail sales dropped -0.4% yoy in May, better than consensus of -1.9% Yoy. Unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 3.5 % in May a 6 year low. Household spending was rather weak, dropping -8.0% yoy in May versus expectation of -1.9% yoy. There were talks that the weakness in spending could cast some doubts on BoJ's optimistic view on the economy. However, some economists were quick to point out that the details were indeed pointing to bottoming in spending. And, the economy would rebound in Q3 as the impact from the sales tax hike fades. USD/JPY took out 101.42 support today and is likely heading back to 100.65/82 key support level next.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 101.51; (P) 101.68; (R1) 102.88; More...

USD/JPY's fall from 102.79 extends to as low as 101.31 so far today and broke 101.42 support. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100.65/82 key support zone. The larger fall from 105.41 could be resuming and decisive break of 100.65 will confirm. More importantly, such development will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, above 101.81 will dampen this immediate bearish view and turn bias back to the upside to extend recent sideway trading.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) May 285M 250M 534M 498M
23:05 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Jun 1 2 0
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate May 3.50% 3.60% 3.60%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y May -8.00% -1.90% -4.60%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y May 3.40% 3.40% 3.20%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jun 2.80% 2.80% 2.80%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y May -0.40% -1.90% -4.40% -4.30%
7:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Jun 99.8
8:30 GBP Current Account (Pounds) Q1 -17.1B -22.4B
8:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q1 F 0.80% 0.80%
8:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Apr 0.90% 0.90%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jun F -6.7
9:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Jun 102.7
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Jun -3
9:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Jun 3.8
9:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Jun 0.37
12:00 EUR German CPI M/M Jun P 0.20%
12:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Jun P 1.00%
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M May 0.40% -0.20%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M May 1.30% 0.10%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Jun F 82.2 81.20%
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency jumped in NY morning on disappointing US GDP data, offers at 1.3630-50 area were filled but sell orders are still noted 1.3670-75 (stops above), sizeable selling interest is expected at 1.3690-00 with more stops tipped above figure. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3600-10, 1.3575-85 and 1.3560 (stops below), more buy orders are tipped at 1.3535-40 and 1.3500-20 area with stops placed below 1.3500.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.8100

Although the single currency has retreated after meeting resistance at 0.8034 yesterday, break of recent low of 0.7959 is needed to signal recent decline has resumed in wave v of iii and extend further weakness to 0.7940 and possibly 0.7920, however, this final leg of wave iii should be limited to 0.7900 and reckon 0.7870-75 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a rebound to take place later.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.0800

As the greenback has remained under pressure after this week's anticipated resumption of decline, adding credence to our near term bearish count for the wave c of iv to extend further weakness to 1.0650-60 and possibly towards  1.0605-10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0190-1.1279), however, oversold condition should limit downside to 1.0550, risk from there is seen for a strong rebound to take place later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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