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Daily Report: Euro Staying in Tight Range as ECB AwaitedEuro remains stuck in tight range against dollar as markets are awaiting ECB rate decision. The central bank is widely expected to announce easing measures to counter the weakening inflation outlook. That would likely including cutting of the three interest rates, including lowering the main refinancing rate from 0.25% to 0.05%, and the deposit rate into negative territory. There would also be non-conventional measures like new LTROs and pausing of sterilization of crisis-area bond purchase. Large scale quantitative easing is not likely for this meeting, but markets will look for clues on ECB's stance on it and to want extent the preparation works were done. The central ECB would also release new staff projections which would provide hints on the chance of even further stimulus. BoE will likely hold rates unchanged at 0.50% and keep the asset purchase size at GBP 375b. A brief statement would be released and the announcement would likely be a non-event. | |
| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3583; (P) 1.3611 (R1) 1.3625; More.... Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.3585 temporary low continues. Another recovery cannot be ruled out. But we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.3733 resistance and bring fall resumption. Current development is favoring the case of trend reversal on bearish divergence in daily MACD. Below 1.3585 will target 1.3476 key support for confirmation of this bearish case. However, break of 1.3733 will dampen this view and bring rebound first. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency remained confined within narrow range and further consolidation is in store. At the moment, bids are still noted at 1.3600 and decent demand remains at 1.3575-85, more bids are tipped further out at 1.3550-60 (stops below barrier at 1.3550), 1.3525 and 1.3500 (another barrier). On the upside, offers are noted at 1.3640-45, more sell orders are located at 1.3655-65 and 1.3680-1.3700 area, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3715 and 1.3730 with stops placed above 1.3735. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8050Despite intra-day bounce to 0.8150, as the single currency has retreated after faltering below resistance at 0.8153 (last week's high), retaining our view that further consolidation would be seen and below yesterday's low of 0.8107 would signal rebound from 0.8081 (last month's low) has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would extend weakness to 0.8050-55 Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold short entered at 1.0920Although the greenback has risen again on soft Canadian data and after BOC, as this move is still viewed as retracement of recent decline, reckon upside would be limited to 1.0960-70 and bring retreat later, below 1.0870-75 (previous resistance) would signal top is formed and bring another fall towards 1.0814 support but break there is needed to signal the c leg of wave iv is in progress and extend the decline from 1.1279 (wave iii top) for a stronger correction of early upmove to 1.0800, then towards 1.0730-40 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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