Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-25-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Tumbles on Poor Durables and GDP

Dollar weakens in early US session after rather poor economic data release. Durable goods orders dropped -1.0% in May versus expectation of -0.1% fall. Ex-transport orders dropped -0.1% versus expectation of 0.3% growth. Q1 GDP was revised sharply lower to -2.9% versus expectation of -1.7% and prior estimate of -1.0%. GDP price index was left unrevised at 1.3%. The contraction was the worst since 2009. However, economists are quick to point out that the primary reason for the contraction was the bad winter and that's not a true reflection of the health of economy.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8921; (P) 0.8939; (R1) 0.8954; More....

At this point, USD/CHF is still holding on to 0.8907 support and intraday bias remains neutral. Overall, we're favoring the case that short term top is formed at 0.9036. And the consolidation pattern from 0.8698 is likely completed at 0.9036 too. Below 0.8907 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.8698/8702 support zone. However, above 0.9036 will invalidate our view and bring stronger rise to 0.9156 resistance instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y May 3.60% 3.20% 3.40%
06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Jul 8.9 8.6 8.5 8.6
06:00 CHY UBS Consumption Indicator May 1.77 1.72
10:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales Jun 4 25 16
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders May -1.00% -0.10% 0.80% 0.60%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation May -0.10% 0.30% 0.10% 0.30%
12:30 USD GDP Q1 F -2.90% -1.70% -1.00% -1.00%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q1 F 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.2M -0.6M
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency jumped in NY morning on disappointing US GDP data, offers at 1.3630-50 area were filled but sell orders are still noted 1.3670-75 (stops above), sizeable selling interest is expected at 1.3690-00 with more stops tipped above figure. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3600-10, 1.3575-85 and 1.3560 (stops below), more buy orders are tipped at 1.3535-40 and 1.3500-20 area with stops placed below 1.3500.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold short entered at 0.8950

As the greenback has dropped again in NY on soft US data, retaining our bearishness for early fall from 0.9037 top to resume, break of previous support at 0.8908 would add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent rise to support at 0.8883, then towards 0.8850, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside and price should stay well above 0.8800.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Hold short entered at 102.10

Current selloff on release of much weaker-than-expected US GDP data has reinfoced our bearishness and break of support at 101.61 would signal the fall from 102.80 has resumed and extend weakness to 101.10-20, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below previous chart support at 100.82, bring rebound later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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