Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 6-25-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Risk Appetite Hurt by Middle Tensions, Forex Mixed

Risk appetite was hurt by escalating tensions in the Middle East. DOW closed sharply lower by losing -119.13 pts at 16818.13 while S&P 500 dropped -12.63 points to close at 1949.98. Asian equities followed with Nikkei falling -70 pts and is trading around 15000 handle at the time of writing. The forex markets are relatively steady though. European majors continued to stay in established range against dollar. EUR/USD is stuck between 1.3502 and 1.3676, USD/CHF stays in 0.8907 and 0.9036, GBP/USD staying in range of 1.6918 and 7062. USD/JPY is also hovering in tight range around 102. More notable move was seen in AUD/USD, which took out 0.9374 minor support which signals near term weakness.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9344; (P) 0.9387; (R1) 0.9409; More...

The break of 0.9374 support argues that the rebound from 0.9211 could have completed at 0.9446 already, ahead of 0.9460 near term resistance. And, the consolidation pattern from 0.9460 is possibly still in progress and is starting another falling leg. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.9321 first. Break will confirm this case and target 0.9211 support and below. In that case, strong support should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 0.8659 to 0.9460 at 0.9154 and bring rally resumption eventually. Meanwhile, break of 0.9460 will resume whole rise from 0.8659.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y May 3.60% 3.20% 3.40%
6:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Jul 8.6 8.5
6:00 CHY UBS Consumption Indicator May 1.72
10:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales Jun 25 16
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders May -0.10% 0.80%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation May 0.30% 0.10%
12:30 USD GDP Q1 F -1.70% -1.00%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q1 F 1.30% 1.30%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.6M
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has retreated in NY morning after intra-day cross-inspired rebound to 1.3628, however, bids are still noted at 1.3575-85, 1.3560 (stops below) and 1.3535-40, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3500-20 area with stops placed below 1.3500. On the upside, offers remain at 1.3630-50 area and 1.3670 (stops above), sizeable selling interest is expected at 1.3690-00 with more stops tipped above figure.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.8100

As the single currency has rebounded again today, retaining our our view that further consolidation above last week's low of 0.7959 would be seen and minor correction to 0.8050-60 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 0.8100 would limit upside and bring another decline. A break of said support at 0.7959 would extend recent decline in wave v of iii to 0.7940 and possibly 0.7920, however, this final leg of wave iii should be limited to 0.7900 and reckon 0.7870-75 would hold from here

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell again at 1.0800

As the greenback has remained under pressure after recent anticipated resumption of decline, bearishness remains for the wave c of iv to extend further weakness to 1.0650-60 and possibly towards  1.0605-10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0190-1.1279), however, oversold condition should limit downside to 1.0550, risk from there is seen for a strong rebound to take place later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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