Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-11-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Yen Surges Broadly, Focus on RBNZ Next

While Euro remains the weakest currency this week, it's being slightly overshadowed by weakness in dollar. The greenback's selloff today was triggered by broad based rally in the Japanese yen, which sent USD/JPY through 102.13 minor support. Sterling also recovers against dollar after positive employment data. Meanwhile, Aussie and Kiwi are firmer ahead of tomorrow's RBNZ rate decision, as well as Australian job data. Selloff in European stock indices saw FTSE, DAX and CAC down today and dragged down US futures too. US equities could retreat mildly after making consecutive sessions of record close and such retreat may help lift the Japanese yen for the rest of the trading day.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 102.18; (P) 102.37; (R1) 102.53; More...

The sharp decline today and break of 102.13 minor support suggest that rebound from 100.82 is already completed at 102.79. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 101.42 support first. Break will target a test on key support zone of 100.61/75. On the upside, above 102.79 will extend the rebound from 100.82. But, overall, price actions from 100.75 are viewed as a consolidation pattern and we'd expect strong resistance below 104.12 and bring reversal.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q2 -13.9 14.1 12.5
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI M/M May 0.30% 0.10% 2.80% 2.90%
0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment Jun 0.20% -6.80%
8:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Apr 6.60% 6.70% 6.80%
8:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change May -27.4K -25.0K -25.1K -28.4K
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate May 3.20% 3.20% 3.30%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.4M
18:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement May -142.8B 106.9B
21:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 3.25% 3.00%
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Although the single currency recovered in European session, offers are still noted at 1.3560, 1.3575-85 and 1.3600-10, sell orders in good size are tipped at 1.3625 and 1.3645-50, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3665-75 and 1.3680-1.3700 area with stops expected above barrier at figure. On the downside, bids remain at 1.3520, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.3500-10 with fresh demand expected around 1.3475 and 1.3450.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6730

Although the British pound has recovered after falling to 1.6738 earlier today, above yesterday's high of 1.6817 is needed to signal retreat from 1.6846 has ended and bring retest of this level, otherwise, further consolidation is in store and near term downside risk remains for weakness to 1.6730, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, downside should be limited to support at 1.6723 and bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Hold long entered at 1.3537

Although the single currency dropped again earlier today to as low as 1.3522, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below there and reckon support at 1.3503 would hold, bring rebound later, above 1.3560-65 would bring test of the lower Kumo (now at 1.3595) but break of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3617) is needed to signal the fall from 1.3677 has ended and bring another rise towards this level later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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