Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-24-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Higher after Strong Confidence and Home Sales

Dollar is broadly higher after release of some strong economic data. Conference Board consumer confidence rose strongly to 85.2 in June versus expectation of 83.6. That's the highest level since January 2008. New home sales surged to 504k annualized rate in May versus expectation of 442k. That 18.6% monthly rise was also the biggest since January 1992. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed Plosser said "the rebound after the bad winter seems to be progressing, the outlook for unemployment is a bit better, and the inflation rate appears to be firming." While the dollar strengthens, it's still bounded in familiar range against European majors and yen.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3579; (P) 1.3596 (R1) 1.3619; More....

EUR/USD continues to stays in established range of 1.3502/3676 and intraday bias remains neutral. At this point, we're still favoring that a short term bottomed is formed at 1.3502 and expect another rise. Above 1.3676 will target 1.3993 resistance and break will extend the medium term up trend. However, below 1.3502 will turn focus to 1.3476 key support. Sustained break of 1.3476 will signal medium term reversal and carry bearish implications.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
02:00 CNY Conference Board Leading Index 0.70% 0.90%
06:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) May 2.77B 2.77B 2.43B 2.45B
08:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Jun 109.7 110.2 110.4
08:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Jun 114.8 115 114.8
08:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Jun 104.8 105.9 106.2
08:30 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals May 41.8K 41.3K 42.2K 41.9K
13:00 USD House Price Index M/M Apr 0.00% 0.60% 0.70%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Apr 10.80% 11.70% 12.40%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Jun 85.2 83.6 83 82.2
14:00 USD New Home Sales May 504K 442K 433K 425K
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has retreated in NY morning after intra-day cross-inspired rebound to 1.3628, however, bids are still noted at 1.3575-85, 1.3560 (stops below) and 1.3535-40, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3500-20 area with stops placed below 1.3500. On the upside, offers remain at 1.3630-50 area and 1.3670 (stops above), sizeable selling interest is expected at 1.3690-00 with more stops tipped above figure.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6900 or Sell at 1.7105

Current cross-inspired retreat suggests a temporary top has possibly been formed at 1.7063 last week and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for correction to 1.6935-40 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6738-1.7063), then test of previous support at 1.6922, however, reckon 1.6900 (50% Fibonacci retracement) would hold and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance at 1.7063 (last week's high)would extend recent upmove to 1.7090-95

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Sell at 102.10

As the greenback has rebounded again after finding good support right at yesterday's low of 101.82, suggesting further consolidation is in store and recovery to 102.10 cannot be ruled out, however, upside should be limited to 102.20 resistance and bring another decline, below said support would bring test of 101.70-74 and possibly towards last week's low of 101.61 but only a break of key support at 101.43 would confirm the rise from 100.82 has ended at 102.80 earlier

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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