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Daily Report: Aussie Jumps as China Manufacturing Returned to Growth Aussie opens the week strongly higher after upside surprise in manufacturing data from China. The HSBC Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in June, back into expansionary region for the first time in six months since December. That's notably stronger than expectation of 49.7. Looking at the details, improvement was seen in most of indices. In particular, new orders rose to 51.8, highest in 15 months, indicating solid domestic and foreign demand. HSBC noted that "this month's improvement is consistent with data suggesting that the authorities' mini-stimulus are filtering through to the real economy." And, HSBC expected "policymakers to continue their current path of accommodative policy stance until the recovery is sustained." Also released in Asia, Japan manufacturing PMI rose to 51.1. in June. AUD/USD breaches last week's high of 0.9437 and is heading to 0.9460 resistance next. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
AUD/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9371; (P) 0.9392; (R1) 0.9408; More... The break of 0.9437 indicates resumption of rise from 0.9211. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.9460 near term resistance. Break will resume whole rally from 0.8659. In such case, AUD/USD should target medium term fibonacci level at 0.9583 next. Meanwhile, below 0.9374 will suggest that consolidation from 0.9460 is going to extend further and will turn bias to the downside for 0.9211 support. In that case, strong support should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 0.8659 to 0.9460 at 0.9154 and bring rally resumption. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous
1:35	JPY	Manufacturing PMI Jun P	51.1		49.9
1:45	CNY	HSBC Manufacturing PMI Jun P	50.8	49.7	49.4
7:00	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI Jun P		49.6	49.6
7:00	EUR	French Services PMI Jun P		49.5	49.1
7:30	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI Jun P		52.7	52.3
7:30	EUR	German Services PMI Jun P		55.8	56
8:00	EUR	Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jun P		52.2	52.2
8:00	EUR	Eurozone Services PMI Jun P		53.4	53.2
14:00	USD	Existing Home Sales May		4.74M	4.65M

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency extended intra-day decline in NY morning, bids at 1.3600, 1.3685-90 and 1.3575 were filled but more buy orders are reported at 1.3555 and 1.3540, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3500-20 area with stops placed below 1.3500. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3600 and in good size at 1.3635-50 and 1.3670 with stops building up above latter level, mixture of offers and stops is located further out at 1.3690-00.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold short entered at 1.0920

Current selloff after breaking yesterday's low of 1.0810 has reinforced our bearish view for the wave c of iv to extend further weakness and the decline from 1.1279 (wave iii top) should bring a stronger correction of early upmove and this c leg of wave iv should bring further fall to 1.0730-40 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0190-1.1279), however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.0690-00 and price should stay above 1.0605-10

Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.7105

Although the British pound has retreated after holding below yesterday's high of 1.7063, reckon the lower Kumo (now at 1.6985) would limit downside and near term upside risk remains for gain to 1.7090-95 (61.8% projection of 1.6738-1.7011 measuring from 1.6922), however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.7105-10 and risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later today or early next week.