Monday, June 23, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 6-24-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Markets Steady, Focus Turns to German Ifo and US Consumer Confidence

The financial markets are rather quiet so far this week. DOW was stuck in tight range overall night and ended nearly flat, down -9.82 pts to close at 16397.26. S&P 500 dropped -0.26 pts to close at 1962.61. Both were close to record high. A little bit more volatility was found in treasury yield where 30 year yield dipped to 3.414 initially then recovered to close at 3.449, just down -0.003. 10 year yield also dipped to 2.590 initially but closed at 2.623, down -0.0001. Dollar index, continued recent consolidative trading from 81.02 and is now at 80.30 at the time of writing. In the currency markets, with the exception of Canadian dollar, most pairs are stuck in familiar range.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0728; (P) 1.0777; (R1) 1.0802; More...

USD/CAD's fall continues today and breaches mentioned 50% retracement of 1.0181 to 1.1278 at 1.0730. Intraday bias remains on the downside and deeper fall would be seen towards 1.6080 key support level. We'd expect strong support above there to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break o 1.0813 resistance will be the first sign of reversal and will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0960 resistance for confirmation.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
2:00 CNY Conference Board Leading Index 0.70% 0.90%
6:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) May 2.77B 2.43B
8:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Jun 110.2 110.4
8:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Jun 115 114.8
8:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Jun 105.9 106.2
8:30 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals May 41.3K 42.2K
13:00 USD House Price Index M/M Apr 0.60% 0.70%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Apr 11.70% 12.40%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Jun 83.6 83
14:00 USD New Home Sales May 442K 433K
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency found support at 1.3574 and has recovered, however, offers remain at 1.3615, 1.3630-40 and 1.3660, sizeable sell orders are expected at 1.3690-00 with sizeable stops tipped above figure. On the downside, bids are still noted at 1.3575, 1.3560 and 1.3535-40, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3500-20 area with stops placed below 1.3500.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Target met and sell again at 1.0800

Current anticipated selloff has justified our bearish count for the wave c of iv to extend further weakness, our indicated target at 1.0720 has been met (our short entered at 1.0920 reached objective at 1.0720 with 200 points profit) and is c leg may extend further weakness to 1.0650-60 and possibly towards  1.0605-10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0190-1.1279)

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY - Sell at 102.10

Despite rebounding from 101.74 to 102.20 late last week, the subsequent retreat suggests consolidation would be seen with downside bias for test of 101.70-74 and possibly towards last week's low of 101.61, however, only a break of key support at 101.43 would confirm the rise from 100.82 has ended at 102.80 earlier and further decline towards 101.10-20 would follow.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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