Monday, June 9, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 6-9-14

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Daily Report: Yen Higher after GDP Revision, Limited by Risk Appetite

The Japanese yen recovers mildly against dollar today after upward revision in GDP data. 1Q14 GDP growth was revised higher to 1.6% q/q from previous estimate of 1.5%. The biggest driver of the revision was the improvement in non-residential investment while private consumption also grew slightly faster even after the April 1 tax increase. However, private inventories were revised lower. Also released from Japan, consumer confidence improved more than expected to 39.3 in May versus consensus of 37.6. Current account surplus came in narrower than expected at JPY 0.13T in April. Eco watchers current sentiment rose to 45.1 in May, also higher than expectation of 45.0. Released from China, trade surplus widened to USD 35.9b in May versus expectation of USD 22.6b.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 102.19; (P) 102.40; (R1) 102.68; More...

USD/JPY dips mildly today but stays above 102.13 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral. With 102.13 support intact, further rally is expected to 103.01 and above. Overall, price actions from 100.75 are viewed as a consolidation pattern and we'd expect strong resistance below 104.12 and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 102.13 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 100.75.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
CNY Trade Balance May $35.9B $22.60B $18.46B
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q1 F 1.60% 1.40% 1.50%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q1 F -0.10% 0.00% 0.00%
23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Apr 0.13T 0.23T -0.78T
5:00 JPY Consumer Confidence May 39.3 37.6 37
6:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current May 45.1 45 41.6
8:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Jun 13.3 12.8
12:15 CAD Housing Starts May 185.0K 194.8K
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency jumped to 2-week high shortly after the release of US job data, offers at 1.3665-75 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.3680-1.3700 area, selling interest is located at 1.3725-50 area with stops placed above latter level. On the downside, bids are reported at 1.3620 and 1.3600, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3575, 1.3550-60 and 1.3525, decent demand remains at 1.3500, 1.3475 and 1.3450.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8090

Although the single currency fell briefly to 0.8065 yesterday, as euro found good support there and has staged a strong rebound, suggesting low is possibly formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for test of resistance at 0.8153 (last week's high), however, break there is needed to signal wave v has ended at 0.8065 and bring stronger rebound towards 0.8184 resistance.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold short entered at 1.0920

Although the greenback has rebounded again and marginal rise above yesterday's high of 1.0960 cannot be ruled out, as this move from 1.0814 is still viewed as retracement of recent decline, reckon upside would be limited to 1.0960-70 and bring retreat later, below 1.0870-75 (previous resistance) would signal top is formed and bring another fall towards 1.0814 support but break there is needed to signal the c leg of wave iv is in progress

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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