Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-4-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Mildly Lower as ADP Employment Missed

Dollar weakens mildly against European majors and yen after release of weaker than expected employment data. The ADP job report showed the private sector job market grew 179k in May, below expectation of 208k. Prior month's figure was also revised slightly lower from 220k to 215k. The dollar index is trading at 80.53 at the time of writing, back below 80.60 near term resistance. Nonetheless, EUR/USD is staying inside very tight range around 1.36 as traders stay cautious ahead of tomorrow's ECB rate decision. In other markets, stock futures dropped slightly and point to a mildly lower open. Treasury yields also dip mildly in early trading.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6724; (P) 1.6753; (R1) 1.6775; More...

Despite earlier dip, GBP/USD defended 1.6692 temporary low and recovered. Intraday bias stays neutral for more consolidation above 1.6992. But we'd still expect recovery to be limited well below 1.6921 and bring another decline. Recent development, with the break of medium term channel support, suggests that whole rise from 1.4813 has completed at 1.6995, ahead of 1.7043 key resistance, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Below 1.6692 will target 1.6465 key support next.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y May -1.40% -1.30% -1.40%
01:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q1 1.10% 0.90% 0.80%
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI May F 53.2 53.5 53.5
08:30 GBP Services PMI May 58.6 58.2 58.7
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 P 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Apr -0.10% -0.10% -0.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Apr -1.20% -1.20% -1.60%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change May 179K 208K 220K 215K
12:30 USD Trade Balance Apr -47.2B -$40.6B -$40.4B
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q1 F -3.20% -2.60% -1.70%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q1 F 5.70% 4.80% 4.20%
12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Apr -0.6B 0.10B 0.08B
14:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite May 56.3 55.5 55.2
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.4M -0.2M 1.7M
18:00 USD Federal Reserve Beige Book
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency remained confined within narrow range and further consolidation is in store. At the moment, bids are still noted at 1.3600 and decent demand remains at 1.3575-85, more bids are tipped further out at 1.3550-60 (stops below barrier at 1.3550), 1.3525 and 1.3500 (another barrier). On the upside, offers are noted at 1.3640-45, more sell orders are located at 1.3655-65 and 1.3680-1.3700 area, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3715 and 1.3730 with stops placed above 1.3735.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Hold long entered at 1.3620

Despite yesterday's rebound to 1.3648, as the single currency has retreated after faltering below Friday's high of 1.3650, suggesting further consolidation would be seen, however, as long as support at 1.3586 holds, prospect of another rebound remains, above said resistance at 1.3650 would bring test of another previous resistance at 1.3669 (last week's high) but break there is needed to add credence to our view that low is formed at 1.3586

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 102.20

As the greenback has eased after rising to 102.80 earlier today, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and correction to the upper Kumo (now at 102.30) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon previous resistance at 102.14 would limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance would extend the rise from 100.82 for further gain to resistance at 103.02

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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