Sunday, June 15, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 6-16-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Sterling Firm as the Week Starts, Dollar Soft

Sterling maintains recent momentum and edges higher broadly as the week starts. BoE deputy governor Bean said he'd welcome the "symbolic step" of rate hike as that would be "an indication that we are on the road back to normality". And, "having interest rates at an emergency level for a very long time is not a situation one wants to be in." Regarding the economy, Bean noted that the central bank was "starting to see better balance" with pickup in investments and optimism from manufacturers. He said there are "plenty of reasons to be cheerful". After BoE governor Carney's talk last week, the majority of economists are expecting the first rate hike by March next year, with some expecting a hike as early as this year end.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7966; (P) 0.7986; (R1) 0.8001; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside for the moment. 100% projection of 0.8584 to 0.8157 from 0.8399 at 0.7972 was met already and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Current fall is accelerating an would target 168.1% projection at 0.7708, which is close to key long term support level of 0.7693. On the upside, break of 0.8081 resistance is needed to short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BoE Quarterly Bulletin
23:01 GBP Rightmove House Price Index M/M Jun 0.10% 3.60%
05:00 JPY BOJ Monthly Report
09:00 EUR CPI M/M May -0.10% 0.20%
09:00 EUR CPI Y/Y May 0.50% 0.50%
09:00 EUR CPI - Core Y/Y May 0.70%
12:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (CAD) Apr $4.27B $-1.23B
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index Jun 15.7 19.01
13:00 USD Net Long-Term TIC Flows Apr $41.3B $4.0B
13:15 USD Industrial Production M/M May 0.40% -0.60%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization May 78.80% 78.60%
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Jun 47 45
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency turned around in European session, bids at 1.3550 were filled but buy orders are still noted at 1.3510-20, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.3500, more buying interest is located at 1.3475 and 1.3450. On the upside, offers in good size are reported at 1.3580-85 and 1.3600-10, selling interest in good size is tipped at 1.3625 and 1.3640-50, more sellers are expected further out at 1.3665-75 and 1.3680-1.3700 area with stops expected above barrier at figure.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold short entered at 1.0920

Although the greenback has recovered after falling to 1.0842 and minor consolidation would be seen, reckon upside would be limited to 1.0890-95 (previous minor support) and bring another decline later, we are keeping our view that the correction from 1.0814 has ended at 1.0960 last week and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards this support. Having said that, only break there would indicate the c leg of wave iv is in progress

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD - Hold long entered at 1.3537

Failure to extend intra-day rebound and current sharp retreat from 1.3579 deferred our near term bullishness and 1.3520 needs to hold to retain prospect of another rebound, above said intra-day resistance would add credence to our view that low is possibly formed at 1.3503 last week, bring a stronger rebound to 1.3600-05, break there would suggest the fall from 1.3677 has ended, then another rise towards said resistance at 1.3677 would follow.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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