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Friday, June 13, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 6-13-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Sterling Soars after Hawkish Carney, Yen Lower after BoJ on Hold

Sterling soars broadly after hawkish comments from BoE governor Carney. He noted in his annual address to bankers that "there's already great speculation about the exact timing of the first rate hike and this decision is becoming more balanced. It could happen sooner than markets currently expect." Markets are now pricing in the first hike from the current 0.5% in next February. And based on Carney's comment, the rate hike could be pulled ahead to end of this year. Meanwhile, Fitch affirmed UK's AA+ credit rating with a table outlook. The rating agency noted that "favorable macroeconomic trends, including strong GDP growth, falling unemployment and inflation close to the 2 percent target, have continued in the U.K. economy since our last review in December 2013."

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 171.38; (P) 171.81; (R1) 172.59; More.....

GBP/JPY surges to as high as 173.36 so far today and the strong break of 172.53 confirms resumption of rebound from 169.53. Intraday bias is back on the upside and break of 173.46 resistance bring further rally to 174.84 key resistance level. At this point, we'd remain cautious on strong resistance from there to bring reversal to extend the medium term sideway pattern. Below 172.53 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 170.95 support. However, decisive break of 174.84 will confirm resumption of larger up trend.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
4:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Apr F -2.80% -2.50% -2.50%
5:30 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y May 8.80% 8.80% 8.70%
5:30 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y May 12.50% 12.20% 11.90%
5:30 CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y May 17.20% 17.10% 17.30%
6:00 EUR German CPI M/M May F -0.10% -0.10% -0.10%
6:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y May F 0.90% 0.90% 0.90%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q1 0.10% 0.10%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Apr 15.9B 15.2B
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Apr 0.90% 0.40%
12:30 USD PPI M/M May 0.10% 0.60%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y May 2.10%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M May 0.20% 0.50%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y May 1.90%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Jun P 83 81.9
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency filled bids at 1.3520 but found buying interest at 1.3512 and has recovered, mixture of bids and stops remains at 1.3500-10, fresh demand is expected around 1.3475 and further out 1.3450. On the upside, offers remain at 1.3550-60, 1.3575-85 and 1.3600-10, sell orders in good size are tipped at 1.3625 and 1.3640-50, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3665-75 and 1.3680-1.3700 area with stops expected above barrier at figure.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6800

Cable's rally in part due to active cross-buying in sterling together with the breach of previous resistance at 1.6846 add credence to our view that the rise from 1.6693 low is still in progress for at least a strong retracement of the decline from 1.6996 and gain to resistance at 1.6882 would be sen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.6900 and reckon 1.6930-40 would hold from here, bring retreat later.

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD - Hold long entered at 1.3537

Although the single currency fell initially to 1.3512, as euro has rebounded after holding above last week's low of 1.3503, retaining our view that further consolidation above this level would be seen and mild upside bias remains for test of the upper Kumo (now at 1.3575), break there would suggest the fall from 1.3677 has possibly ended, above 1.3600 would add credence to this view, then another rise towards said resistance at 1.3677 would follow.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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