Thursday, June 19, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-19-14

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Mid-Day Report: CHF Mildly Higher after SNB, USD Extends Decline

Swiss Franc strengthens mildly today after SNB left policies unchanged. The target range for the three-month Libor was kept unchanged at 0-0.25%. Also, the EUR/CHF floor is held at 1.2. The central bank SNB president Jordan emphasized that the central bank will closely monitor the "impact of the recent interest rate reductions in the euro area on Switzerland. And he noted "we've said repeatedly that we don't exclude any measure and that the introduction of negative rates is a possible option." SNB lowered inflation projection for the next two years. CPI is expected to be at 0.3% in 20156 and 0.9% in 2016. 2014 inflation forecast was raised slightly to 0.1%.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8941; (P) 0.8969; (R1) 0.8985; More....

USD/CHF drops sharply today but is staying above 0.8907 support for the moment and intraday bias remains neutral first. As noted before, we're still favoring the case that a short term top is formed at 0.9036. And the consolidation pattern from 0.8698 is likely completed at 0.9036 too. Below 0.8907 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.8698/8702 support zone. However, above 0.9036 will invalidate our view and bring stronger rise to 0.9156 resistance instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q1 1.00% 1.20% 0.90% 1.00%
22:45 NZD GDP Y/Y Q1 3.80% 3.70% 3.10%
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Apr -4.30% -3.70% 1.50%
05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index Apr 106.5 107.1 107.4
07:30 CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M May -0.50% -0.50% 1.30% 1.00%
10:00 GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations Apr 11 2 0
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 13) 312K 316K 318K
14:00 USD CB Leading Indicator M/M May 0.50% 0.50% 0.40% 0.30%
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey May 14.8 14.8 15.4
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 113B 112B 107B
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency extended this week's rise and offers at 1.3640 were filled, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.3650 and 1.3670 with stops building up above latter level, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3690-00 with more stops expected above figure. On the downside, bids remain at 1.3600 and 1.3685-90, more buy orders are reported at 1.3575, 1.3555 and 1.3540, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3500-20 area with stops placed below 1.3500.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold short entered at 0.8990

The greenback met renewed selling interest at 0.8996 overnight in NY and has fallen again below indicated support at 0.8960, retaining our near term bearishness and add credence to our view that rebound from 0.8908 has ended at 0.9013, hence further consolidation below this week's high of 0.9013 would be seen with downside bias for weakness to 0.8920, however, break of said support at 0.8908 is needed to signal another leg of decline from 0.9037 is underway

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.3580

As the single currency has surged again after finding good support at 1.3548, reviving our near term bullish view that a temporary low was formed at 1.3503 earlier and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for gain to 1.3677 resistance, above there would bring retracement of recent decline from 1.3993 for headway to 1.3700 but reckon resistance at 1.3734 would cap upside.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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