Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-1-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sterling Jumps on Strong PMI Points to Solid Q2 Growth

Sterling strengthens against dollar today and reaches as high as 1.7153 so far, extending recent rally. GBP/JPY also took out 174.09 near term resistance to resume the larger rise. EUR/GBP dips following broad based rally in the pound but at this momentum, it's holding above near term support of 0.7958. UK PMI manufacturing unexpectedly rose to 57.5 in June versus consensus of a fall to 56.7. That's the second highest level in over three years. Markit noted that "UK manufacturing continued to flourish in June, rounding off one of the best quarters for the sector over the past two decades." And, manufacturing is expected to expand in Q2, at a stronger pace then Q1's 1.5%. Elsewhere in Europe, Eurozone manufacturing PMI was revised slightly lower to 51.8 in June, unemployment rate was unchanged at 11.6% in May. German unemployment rose 9k in June while unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%. Swiss SVME PMI improved to 54.0 in June versus expectation of 52.6.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7037; (P) 1.7076; (R1) 1.7143; More...

GBP/USD's rally accelerates today and reaches as high as 1.7153 so far. The larger rally from 1.4813 is still in progress. Intraday bias remains on the upside for next key long term fibonacci level at 1.7332. . We'd expect loss of momentum as it approaches this level and reverse from there. On the downside, below 1.7095 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.6952 support holds.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q2 12 16 17
23:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q2 19 19 24
1:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI Jun 51 51 50.8
1:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y May 0.80% 0.80% 0.90% 0.70%
1:45 CNY HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Jun F 50.7 50.8 50.8
4:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
7:30 CHF SVME-PMIs Index Jun 54 52.6 52.5
7:45 EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI Jun 52.6 53.5 53.2
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Jun 9K -9K 24K
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Jun 6.70% 6.70% 6.70%
8:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jun F 51.8 51.9 51.9
8:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Jun 57.5 56.7 57
9:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate May 11.60% 11.70% 11.70% 11.60%
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Jun 55.3 55.5 55.4
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Jun 58 60 60
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M May 0.1% 0.50% 0.20%
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to move higher and mixture of offers and stops at 1.3670-75 (stops above) is in focus, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.3690-00, sizeable selling interest is expected at 1.3690-00 with more stops tipped above 1.3705, sellers are waiting further out at 1.3725-30 and 1.3750-60. On the downside, bids remain at 1.3640 and 1.3600-10, good size buy orders remain at 1.3570-75 and 1.3545-50, more buying interest is located at 1.3520-30, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.3500-10.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Sell at 0.8895

Yesterday's selloff after breaking below previous support at 0.8908 (now turned into resistance) suggests recent decline from 0.9037 top is still in progress (after a tentatively big round top formation) and further weakness to 0.8830-35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8703-0.9037) would be seen, however, reckon 0.8805-10 (1.618 times projection of 0.9037-0.8908 measuring from 0.9013 and 1.618 times projection of 0.9013-0.8911 measuring from 0.8975) would limit downside

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.3650

Yesterday's rally above resistance at 1.3677 adds credence to our view that the erratic rise from 1.3503 low is still in progress for retracement of early selloff from 1.3993, hence further gain to resistance at 1.3734 and possibly 1.3748-50 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3993-1.3503) would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3775 resistance and bring retreat later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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