Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-15-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sterling Shone on CPI, Dollar Firm Despite Mixed Data

Dollar is mildly higher in early US session against other major currencies except Sterling, despite mixed economic data. Retail sales rose 0.2% in June versus expectation of 0.6%. Ex-auto sales rose 0.4% versus expectation of 0.6%. Import price index rose 0.1% mom in June versus expectation of 0.3% mom. Nonetheless, empire state manufacturing index rose to 25.6 in July versus expectation of falling to 17.2. The focus will turn to Fed Chairman Janet Yellen's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee (The testimony the House Financial Services Committee would be held Wednesday). What the market is concerned the most is how the Fed would react, in terms of monetary policy, to the decline in the unemployment rate and the pickup in inflation, an indication of a growth economy.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7053; (P) 1.7098; (R1) 1.7127; More...

The strong rebound in GBP/USD today suggests that consolidation from 1.7179 is already finished at 1.7058. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for 1.7179 first. Break will resume the larger up trend and target t next key long term fibonacci level at 1.7332. We'd expect loss of momentum as it approaches this level and reverse from there. But also, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 1.7058 should now indicate near term topping and turn bias to the downside for 1.6952 support.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Sales Monitor Y/Y Jun -0.80% 0.50%
01:30 AUD RBA Minutes
03:00 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
07:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Jun 0.00% 0.10% 0.10%
07:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Jun -0.80% -0.80% -0.80%
08:30 GBP CPI M/M Jun 0.20% -0.10% -0.10%
08:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Jun 1.90% 1.60% 1.50%
08:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Jun 2.00% 1.70% 1.60%
08:30 GBP RPI M/M Jun 0.20% -0.10% 0.10%
08:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Jun 2.60% 2.40% 2.40%
08:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Jun -0.80% 0.00% -0.90% 0.30%
08:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Jun -4.40% -4.50% -5.00% -3.80%
08:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Jun -0.20% 0.10% -0.10%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Jun 0.20% 0.50% 0.50%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Jun 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Jun 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
08:30 GBP DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y May 10.50% 10.20% 9.90%
09:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jul 27.1 30 29.8
09:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) Jul 61.8 67.5 67.7
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jul 61.8 62.3 58.4
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Jun 0.20% 0.60% 0.30% 0.50%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Jun 0.40% 0.60% 0.10% 0.40%
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Jul 25.6 17.2 19.3
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Jun 0.10% 0.30% 0.10%
14:00 USD Business Inventories May 0.60% 0.60%
     
Forex Trade Ideas

Remark: Due to holiday next week, next Candlestick and Ichimoku Trade Idea update will be made on 21 July (Monday).

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

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