Friday, May 9, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-9-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Loonie Pares Gains after Employment Data, Europeans Stay Pressured

The Canadian dollar pares back much of this week's gain after disappointing job data. The employment market unexpectedly contracted -28.9k in April versus expectation of 14.9k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.9% as expected. Technically, USD/CAD dropped to as low as 1.0813 yesterday as recent corrective fall from 1.1278 resumed. Today's recovery suggests temporary bottoming and we'd likely see some sideway trading ahead. Similarly, EUR/CAD also extended recent correction from 1.5585 to as low as 1.4910. But the post data recovery suggest temporary bottoming and we should see some consolidation ahead of the weekend.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6911; (P) 1.6943; (R1) 1.6962; More...

GBP/USD's sharp retreat from 1.6995 extend lower today. But still, it's held above 1.6819 resistance turned support. Thus, intraday bias stays neutral first. As long as 1.6819 holds, another rise is still expected. Above 1.6995 will target 1.7043 key resistance. We'll start to be cautious on topping above there. Meanwhile, break of 1.6819 will be an early sign of reversal and will turn bias to the downside for 1.6654 support first.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 CNY PPI Y/Y Apr -2.00% -1.80% -2.30%
01:30 CNY CPI Y/Y Apr 1.80% 2.10% 2.40%
01:30 AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
05:00 JPY Leading Index Mar P 106.5 106.9 108.9
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Mar 14.8B 16.9B 16.3B
08:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Mar -8.5B -9.0B -9.1B -8.7B
08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Mar -0.10% -0.20% 0.90% 0.80%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Mar 2.30% 2.40% 2.70% 2.50%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Mar 0.50% 0.30% 1.00%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Mar 3.30% 2.90% 3.80% 3.90%
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Apr -28.9K 14.9K 42.9K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Apr 6.90% 6.90% 6.90%
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Apr 0.90%
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Mar 0.50% 0.50%
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to head south since yesterday's reversal, bids and stops at 1.3800-10 and 1.3770-85 were tripped, some bids are still seen at 1.3750 and 1.3730 with more stops placed below 1.3700 (some bids above). On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3810-20, 1.3845-50 and 1.3875, more sell orders are located at 1.3900, 1.3935 and 1.3950-60. selling interest in good size remains at 1.3990-00 with stops expected above barrier at 1.4000.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6905

Cable has fallen again after meeting renewed selling interest at the Kijun-Sen and broke below indicated support at 1.6854, adding credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.6996 earlier this week and downside bias remains for further fall to 1.6823 support, then 1.6800-07 support, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to support at 1.6778 and bring recovery later.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3870

Although the single currency resumed recent upmove to as high as 1.3993 yesterday, the subsequent reversal on Draghi's comments on possible action in June together with current break of indicated previous support at 1.3812 add credence to our view that top has been formed there and consolidation with downside bias remains for correction of recent upmove to bring further weakness to 1.3750 and possibly 1.3730

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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