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Monday, May 26, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 5-27-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Euro Recovered in Thin Market, ECB Draghi Affirmed June Easing

Euro recovered mildly overnight as markets digested recent decline in thin holiday trading. Nonetheless, the common currency stays generally soft against other major currencies. ECB president Draghi affirmed the expectation of policy actions in June in a speech in an ECB conference in Portugal yesterday. He noted that "more pre-emptive action may be warranted". He warned that the central bank needed to be "particularly watchful" for "the potential for a negative spiral to take hold between low inflation, falling inflation expectations and credit, in particular in stressed countries." The conference was the first in an annual ECB event which is modeled on Fed's Jackson Hole conference. ECB executive board member Constancio, Praet and Coeure will chair panel discussions again today and Draghi will wrap up with closing remarks.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.84; (P) 138.96; (R1) 139.21; More...

The consolidation from 138.13 temporary low is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Stronger recovery could be seen but upside is expected to be limited by 140.07 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, current decline should be the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 145.68. Below 138.13 will target 136.22 support.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Apr 3.40% 3.30% 0.70%
6:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Apr 2.43B 2.05B
8:30 GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase Apr 45.2K 45.9K
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Apr -0.50% 2.60%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Apr 0.20% 2.00%
13:00 USD House Price Index M/M Mar 0.50% 0.60%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Mar 11.90% 12.86%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence May 83.2 82.3
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency rebounded in part due to Draghi's comments but sell orders are still noted at 1.3650 and 1.3680-85, more offers are expected at 1.3700-10 and 1.3730 with stops placed above 1.3735, selling interest is seen at 1.3745-55, 1.3770 and 1.3780-85 (stops above). On the downside, demand remains at 1.3600-15 with more stops expected below figure, some buy orders are located at 1.3585 and further out at 1.3550-55.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8050

Although the single currency traded narrowly after last week's selloff and near term downside risk remains for recent decline to extend weakness to 0.8050-55, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below there and reckon this minor wave v would be limited to 0.8015-20 and bring rebound later. We are keeping our view that recent decline is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c)-(x)-(a)-(b)-(c) (with wave (x) ended at 0.8400)

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold long entered at 1.0905

As the greenback has remained under pressure, suggesting caution on our near term bullishness but as long as support at 1.0850 holds, mild upside bias remains for the rebound from 1.0814 to extend gain to 1.0985-90 and possibly test of resistance at 1.1006, however, a daily close above this level is needed to add credence to our view that low is formed at 1.0814, bring subsequent gain towards previous resistance at 1.1053.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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