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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Plummets after BoE Inflation ReportSterling tumbles sharply today as markets pushed back bets on BoE rate hike after the central bank's Quarterly Inflation Report. Before the report, markets were pricing in the first hike in the first quarter of next year. But now, markets are expecting BoE to keep rates unchanged through April 2015. There was also mild pressure from the slightly disappointing job data. GBP/USD drops through key near term support of 1.6819 and now raises the chance of larger trend reversal. GBP/JPY also breaks 171.21 support to resume this week's fall from 173.46. EUR/GBP also stages a strong recovery after hitting a fibonacci projection level. Elsewhere Euro remains generally soft on expectation of further policy easing from June. Yen strengthens broadly as risk market rally seems to be losing momentum. Dollar is mixed and received little inspiration from PPI release. | |
| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.6801; (P) 1.6842; (R1) 1.6865; More... GBP/USD's decline resumes and drops to as low as 1.6757 so far in early US session. The strong break of 1.6819 support firstly confirmed short term topping at 1.6995 on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Also, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, the larger trend could be reversal just ahead of 1.7043 key resistance. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 1.6654 support first. Break will target 1.6465 key support next. On the upside, break of 1.6873 is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will now stays cautiously bearish. |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: The British pound tumbled today on BOE Quarterly Inflation report as well as comments from Carney, bids at 1.6850, 1.6825-35, 1.6800 and 1.6785 were filled, however, more buy orders are tipped at 1.6750-55 and 1.6730, fresh demand should emerge around 1.6700. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.6800-10 and in good size at 1.6840-50, followed by mixture of offers and stops located at 1.6875-85, fresh sell orders are expected at 1.6900-10 and 1.6925. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6840Despite intra-day rebound to 1.6875, the British pound met renewed selling interest right at the lower Kumo and has dropped sharply on release of BOE’s Quarterly Inflation Report, suggesting the decline from 1.6996 top is still in progress and near term downside risk remains for further weakness to 1.6750, then 1.6720-25, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.6690-00, risk from there is seen for a rebound later. Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.8820As the greenback has eased after rising to 0.8909 yesterday, minor consolidation is in store and pullback to support at 0.8883, then the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.8857) but reckon 0.8820 should limit downside and bring another rise later, break of said resistance would extend the rise from last week's low of 0.8703 for further gain to previous chart resistance at 0.8953, however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and signal another leg of major correction from recent low of 0.8699 low is underway Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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