Friday, May 23, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-23-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Falls Again on Ifo Miss

Euro's decline extends today after German confidence data. The Ifo business climate dropped to 110.4 in May versus expectation of 110.9. It's also the lowest reading this year. Current assessment gauge dropped to 114.8 versus consensus of a rise to 115.4. Expectations gauge dropped to 106.2 versus expectation of 106.5. Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn commented that "a lull was seen in the German economy in May." And, current business situation was "no longer as favorable as in April". "Companies are also less optimistic about future business developments," Nonetheless, manufacturers still "expect stronger impulses from exports." Also released from Germany, Q1 GDP was finalized at 0.8% qoq. Euro continues to feel selling pressure on expectation of additional easing measures from ECB in June.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3637; (P) 1.3662 (R1) 1.3680; More....

EUR/USD dips further to as low as 1.3615 so far today and Intraday bias remains on the downside. Recent development suggests that the larger up trend has completed at 1.3993 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, with break of channel support. Further fall should be seen to 1.3476 key support level for confirmation of this bearish case. On the upside, above 1.3733 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring consolidations first.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
02:00 CNY Conference Board Leading Index 0.90% 1.20%
06:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q1 F 0.80% 0.80% 0.80%
08:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate May 110.4 110.9 111.2
08:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment May 114.8 115.4 115.3
08:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations May 106.2 106.5 107.3
12:30 CAD CPI M/M Apr 0.30% 0.30% 0.60%
12:30 CAD CPI Y/Y Apr 2.00% 2.00% 1.50%
12:30 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Apr 0.20% 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Apr 1.40% 1.40% 1.30%
14:00 USD New Home Sales Apr 425K 384K
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to head south and indicated bids and stops at 1.3620 were tripped, however, fresh demand is seen at 1.3600-10 with more stops expected below figure, some buy orders are located at 1.3585 and further out at 1.3550-55. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3650-60, 1.3685 and 1.3700, more sell orders are expected at 1.3720-30 with stops placed above 1.3735, selling interest is seen at 1.3745-55, 1.3770 and 1.3780-85 (stops above).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold long entered at 0.8890

The greenback found renewed buying interest at 0.8924 yesterday and has risen again, adding credence to our bullishness for the rise from 0.8699 low to resume and extend further gain towards psychological resistance at 0.9000, however, overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9040-50, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3680

As the single currency has continued to trade with a weak undertone after yesterday's breach of previous support at 1.3648, suggesting bearishness remains for recent decline from 1.3993 top to extend weakness to 1.3600, however, weakening of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.3560-65 (50% projection of 1.3993-1.3648 measuring from 1.3734) and reckon 1.3545-50 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a rebound later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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