Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-27-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Recovers as Durable Orders Unexpectedly Grew, Other Data Solid

Dollar attempts to strength in early US session on the back of better than expected data. The headline durable goods orders rose 0.8% in April versus expectation of -0.5% fall. Ex-transport orders rose 0.1%, just missing consensus of 0.2%. The S&P Case-shiller 20 cities house price index rose 12.4% yoy in March versus expectation of 11.9% yoy. House price index rose 0.7% mom in March versus expectation of 0.5% mom. Stock futures responded positively and S&P 500 would likely open high and aiming at making new record high. While the greenback is mildly firmer, EUR/USD is still holding above 1.3612 temporary low. And, we could see some more consolidative trading below downside breakout.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6826; (P) 1.6839; (R1) 1.6854; More...

GBP/USD drops mildly today but is staying near to middle of recent range of 1.6731/6995. Intraday bias remains neutral first. The larger rally from 1.4813 might not be over yet. Above 1.6921 will target 1.6995 and 1.7043. But in that case, we'd look for reversal signal again above 1.7043. Meanwhile, below 1.6731 will also have the medium term rising channel taken out. That would be a sign of reversal and will bring deeper fall to 1.6465 key support for confirmation.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Apr 3.40% 3.30% 0.70%
06:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Apr 2.43B 2.43B 2.05B 2.00B
08:30 GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase Apr 42.2K 45.2K 45.9K 45.0K
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Apr 0.80% -0.50% 2.60% 2.90%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Apr 0.10% 0.20% 2.00% 2.40%
13:00 USD House Price Index M/M Mar 0.70% 0.50% 0.60%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Mar 12.40% 11.90% 12.86%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence May 83 83.2 82.3
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency slipped on dollar's broad-based strength, bids at 1.3640-45 were filled but buy orders are still seen at 1.3625 and 1.3600-10 (stops below figure), more buying interest is located at 1.3585 and further out at 1.3550-55. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3650 and from 1.3670 up to 1.3700, more sell orders are expected at 1.3715 and 1.3730 with stops placed above 1.3735, selling interest is seen at 1.3745-55, 1.3770 and 1.3780-85 (stops above).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Sell at 139.85

Although the single currency has retreated after intra-day initial brief rise to 139.37, a firm breach below 138.50-60 is needed to signal the rebound from 138.15 has ended and bring retest of said support, a break there would extend the decline from 143.79 (wave B top) in wave 3 of C for further weakness towards 137.50 but anticipated oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 137.00-10 and reckon support at 136.23 would hold

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 101.30

Although dollar has rebounded after intra-day retreat to 101.73, break of yesterday's high of 102.05 is needed to signal the rise from 100.82 has resumed and bring test of 102.12 resistance, above there would extend gain towards previous resistance at 102.36 but as broad outlook remains consolidative, price should falter below 102.50-60, risk from there is seen for another retreat later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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