Thursday, May 1, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-1-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Mixed Data Released From US, Dollar Soft Against Europeans

Dollar remains weak against European majors in early US session after mixed economic data. Nonetheless, notable weakness is seen in commodity currencies, which pare back much of this week's rebound. Some job data were released from US which include initial jobless claims, which jumped to 344k in the week ended April 26 versus consensus of 319k, hitting a nine week high. Continuing claims rose by 97k to 2.77m in the week ended April 19. Personal income rose 0.5% in March, inline with expectation while spending rose 0.9% versus expectation of 0.6%. Core CPI accelerated slightly to 1.2% yoy while PCE deflator rose less than expected to 1.1% yoy. Overall, the greenback is likely to extend the post GDP decline against European majors, in particular against Sterling. Focus will be on whether EUR/USD could take out 1.3905 resistance and trigger broader decline in the greenback.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6818; (P) 1.6859; (R1) 1.6912; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside. Current up trend from 1.4813 is expected to continue towards 1.7043 key resistance level next. We'll start to look for reversal signal above there. On the downside, break of 1.6777 is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of retreat.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI Apr 50.4 50.5 50.3
01:30 AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q1 3.20% 1.80% -0.60%
08:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Apr 57.3 55.4 55.3
08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Mar 67.1K 72.0K 70.3K
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Mar -2.30% 0.90% 0.70%
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Mar -0.30% 0.70% 0.90%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Apr 5.70% -30.20%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (APR 26) 344K 319K 329K 330K
12:30 USD Personal Income Mar 0.50% 0.50% 0.30%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Mar 0.90% 0.60% 0.30%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Mar 0.20% 0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Mar 1.20% 1.20% 1.10%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator M/M Mar 0.20% 0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Mar 1.10% 1.20% 0.90%
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Apr 54.2 53.7
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Apr 59.3 59
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Mar 0.60% 0.10%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 49B
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound also slipped from intra-day high if 1.6921 made in London morning, offers and stops at 1.6900-10 were cleared but sell orders are still noted at 1.6925 and 1.6940-50, more selling interest should emerge around 1.6975 and 1.7000 (more stops above). On the downside, bids remain at 1.6865, 1.6850 and 1.6835, more buy orders are tipped from 1.6800 all the way down to 1.6750 (every 10 points interval) with stops building up below 1.6750.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Sell at 0.8825

As the greenback has fallen again after brief recovery, adding credence to our bearish view that the rebound from 0.8770 has ended at 0.8862 and consolidation with downside bias remains for test of this week's low of 0.8770 but break there is needed to extend the fall from last week's high of 0.8862 towards this month's low of 0.8743

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6855

As the British pound has retreated after intra-day rise to 1.6921, suggesting minor consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to previous resistance at 1.6858 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud (now at 1.6826-27) would limit downside and bring another rise later, break of said resistance would extend recent upmove to 1.6940-50

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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