Friday, May 30, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 5-30-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: S&P 500 Continued Record Run, Dollar Mixed

Risk markets were firm ahead of month close. S&P 500 extend recent bull run and closed at another record high of 1920.03 overnight. The momentum didn't follow through to Asian markets, however, with major indices fluctuated between gain and loss. Dollar is still firm against Euro and Swiss Franc. But it lost some momentum ahead Sterling and Canadian. Also, the Aussie extended this week's recovery against the greenback and Yen is struggling to find a clear direction of itself. Some importantly economic data will be released from US and Canada later today, including US personal income and spending, as well Canadian GDP. But the reactions could be muted as markets would engage in more consolidations before June trading starts next week.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 101.52; (P) 101.68; (R1) 101.95; More...

USD/JPY is still staying in consolidative trading above 100.82 and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 102.36 resistance holds, deeper decline is still expected. Break of 100.75 key support will confirm resumption of whole decline from 105.41 and should target 100% projection of 105.41 to 100.75 from 104.12 at 99.46. However, note again that 100.61/75 represents a key support zone. And, bullish convergence condition is seen in 4 hours MACD. Break of 102.36 will indicate near term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 103.01 and above.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Apr 1.50% 8.30% 9.20%
23:05 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment May 0 -1 -3
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Apr 3.60% 3.60% 3.60%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Apr -4.60% -3.40% 7.20%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Apr 3.20% 3.10% 1.30%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y May 2.80% 2.90% 2.70%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Apr P -2.50% -1.90% 0.30% 0.70%
5:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Apr -3.30% -8.20% -2.90%
7:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator May 102.05 102.04
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Mar 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Apr 0.40% 0.40%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Apr 1.20% 0.60%
12:30 USD Personal Income Apr 0.30% 0.50%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Apr 0.20% 0.90%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator M/M Apr 0.20%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Apr 1.10%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Apr 0.20%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Apr 1.20%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI May 60.2 63
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence May F 82.9 81.8
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded narrowly after recovering from intra-day low of 1.3586 and bids remain at 1.3575-85, more buy orders are tipped further out at 1.3550-60 (stops below barrier at 1.3550), fresh demand should emerge around 1.3525 and 1.3500 (another barrier). On the upside, offers at 1.3615-25 were filled but sell orders are expected at 1.3640, 1.3655-65 and 1.3680-1.3700 area, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3715 and 1.3730 with stops placed above 1.3735.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy at 101.15

This week's retreat from 102.14 suggests the rise from 100.82 has formed a top there and near term downside risk remains for correction of this move to 101.30-35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 100.82-102.14), however, downside should be limited to 101.00-05 and bring another rebound later. Above the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 101.89) would bring test of resistance at 102.14, break of this week's high would extend the rise from 100.82 towards previous resistance at 102.36

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.0870

The greenback has dropped again today and retest of recent low of 1.0814 would be seen, break there would signal the c leg of wave iv is still in progress and extend the decline from 1.1279 (wave iii top) for a stronger correction of early upmove to 1.0800, then towards 1.0730-40 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0190-1.1279) but reckon downside would be limited to 1.0690-00 and price should stay above 1.0605-10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), bring rebound later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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