Thursday, May 15, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-15-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Tumbles Further after GDP Miss

Euro extends this week's decline after disappointing economic data. Eurozone GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q1, below expectation of 0.4% qoq. French GDP was flat qoq versus expectation of 0.1% qoq. Italian GDP was even worse, which contracted -0.1% qoq versus expectation of 0.2% qoq rise. German GDP, on the other hand, beat expectation and grew 0.8% qoq versus consensus of 0.7% qoq. Also released from Eurozone CPI was finalized at 0.7% yoy in April while core CPI was also finalized at 1.0% yoy, both were unrevised from initial estimate. The GDP misses give further pressure to ECB to add stimulus to the comment. Markets are already pricing in June easing after ECB president Draghi hinted on that during last press conference.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3697; (P) 1.3713 (R1) 1.3730; More....

EUR/USD's decline extends today and reaches as low as 1.3647 so far. The break of 1.3673 support affirmed the case of trend reversal. That is supported by bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and daily MACD, as well as break of medium term channel. Intraday bias remains on the downside and deeper decline should be seen back to 1.3476 key support level. On the upside, above 1.3730 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation before staging another decline.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:30 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index Apr 55.2 58.4 58
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q1 P 1.50% 1.00% 0.20%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q1 P 0.00% -0.10% -0.30%
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Mar 2.40% 2.40% -1.00% -0.90%
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index Apr 37 37.5
05:30 EUR French GDP Q/Q Q1 P 0.00% 0.10% 0.30% 0.20%
06:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q1 P 0.80% 0.70% 0.40%
07:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Apr -0.30% 0.00% 0.00%
07:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Apr -1.20% -0.80% -0.70%
08:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
08:00 EUR Italian GDP Q/Q Q1 P -0.10% 0.20% 0.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Apr 0.20% 0.20% 0.90%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Apr F 0.70% 0.70% 0.70%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Apr F 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 A 0.20% 0.40% 0.20%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Apr 0.30% 0.30% 0.20%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Apr 2.00% 2.00% 1.50%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Apr 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Apr 1.80% 1.70% 1.70%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 10) 297K 320K 319K 321K
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing May 19 6 1.29
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Mar 0.40% 0.10% 1.40%
13:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Mar 4.0B $30.0B $85.7B
13:15 USD Industrial Production Apr -0.60% 0.00% 0.70%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Apr 78.60% 79.20% 79.20%
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index May 49 47
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey May 14 16.6
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 74B
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency remained under pressure after intra-day fall from 1.3723, bids at 1.3650-60 were filled but more buy orders are still seen at 1.3640-45, 1.3625 and further out at 1.3600-10 with more stops building up below barrier at figure. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3700, 1.3725-40 area and 1.3770, more sell orders are tipped at 1.3780-85 (stops above), selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3800-05 (stops above), 1.3825-35 and 1.3850, fresh offers are likely to emerge further out at 1.3875, 1.3900 and 1.3935.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6820

The British pound has dropped again earlier today after brief recovery, adding credence to our view that the decline from 1.6996 top is still in progress and further weakness to 1.6725-28 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6460-1.6996), then 1.6700 (1.236 times projection of 1.6996-1.6832 measuring from 1.6903) would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside and reckon 1.6660-65 (previous chart resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold

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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.8890

As the greenback has rallied again today and broke above indicated previous chart resistance at 0.8953, adding credence to our view that another leg of major correction from recent low of 0.8699 low is underway for further subsequent gain to 0.8975-80, then towards psychological resistance at 0.9000, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond latter level and reckon 0.9040-50 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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