Monday, May 12, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 5-13-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Extends Pull Back as DOW Hit Record High

Yen remains the weakest currency this week and extends the pull back on strong risk appetite. Investors shrugged off the situation in Ukraine and pushed DOW to new record close of 16695.47 overnight, up 112.13 pts or 0.68%. Asian equities follow with Nikkei up 295 pts, or 2.07% at the time of writing. Meanwhile, dollar index is facing some resistance below 80 level as it's pressing the 55 days EMA and lost some upside momentum. The development slowed down the decline in European majors against the greenback. Commodity currencies are also soft, in particular the Aussie after weak housing data.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 171.65; (P) 172.07; (R1) 172.67; More....

The recovery from 171.21 extends higher and break of 172.29 mixes up the near term outlook. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Our view remains unchanged though. Break of 173.46 will extend the rise from 163.87 but will face strong resistance from 174.84 to bring reversal. The consolidation pattern from 174.84 is expected to have another falling leg before completion. On the downside, below 171.21 will turn bias back to the downside for 169.50. Break will indicates that the third leg has stared and should target 167.77 support and below.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Apr 4.20% 1.60% -1.70%
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Apr 3.40% 3.40% 3.50% 3.60%
1:30 AUD Home Loans Mar -0.90% 1.00% 2.30%
1:30 AUD House Price Index Q/Q Q1 -1.20% 3.00% 3.40% 3.50%
5:30 CNY Industrial Production YTD Y/Y Apr 8.70% 8.70% 8.70%
5:30 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Apr 11.9% 12.10% 12.20%
9:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) May 40 43.2
9:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) May 60.5 59.5
9:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) May 63.5 61.2
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Apr 0.40% 1.10%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Apr 0.60% 0.70%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Apr 0.30% 0.60%
14:00 USD Business Inventories Mar 0.40% 0.40%
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

JPY: The greenback has risen again after holding above intra-day low of 101.80, offer at 102.00 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 102.10 and 102.30-50 region, more selling interest is tipped at 102.75-85 and 102.90-00, mixture of offers and stops is located at 103.10. On the downside, bids are raised to 101.80-85, 101.65 and 101.50, decent demand remains at 101.25-35, more buy orders are located at 101.00, 100.75 and 100.50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.8190

The single currency has continued to head south after breaking previous chart support at 0.8158 (Feb 2014), suggesting recent decline is still in progress and recent selloff is now unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c)-(x)-(a)-(b)-(c) with wave (x) ended at 0.8400, hence the 2nd wave (a) is in progress for further weakness to 0.8120-30 and possibly towards 0.8100, however, oversold condition should limit downside to 0.8080 and reckon 0.8050 would hold

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.0955

As the greenback rebounded after falling to 1.0814 late last week on weaker-than-expected Canadian job data, suggesting a minor low is possibly formed and consolidation above this level would be seen with initial upside bias for correction to 1.0950-60, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.0985-90 and resistance at 1.1006 should cap upside and bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend the decline from 1.1279 (wave iii top) for a stronger correction of early upmove to 1.0800, then towards 1.0730-40

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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