Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 5-21-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Mildly Higher after BoJ, BoE and FOMC Minutes Watched

Yen is mildly higher after BoJ left policies unchanged as widely expected. Interest rate is kept near zero and the target of monetary base expansion is held at JPY 60-70T a year. The central bank painted a positive picture in the statement and said that "capital expenditure has increased moderately as corporate profits have improved." The overall assessment on the economy is left unchanged at it "continues to recovery moderately as a trend." Overall, it sounded that the BoJ is still confident on meeting the 2% inflation target without additional stimulus despite the sales tax hike in April. And economists are expectation BoJ to stand pat for the rest of the year.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.46; (P) 138.89; (R1) 139.23; More...

With 139.87 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected in EUR/JPY. Consolidation pattern from 145.68 is in the third leg and current fall should target 136.22 support. However, break of 139.87 will dampen this immediate bearish view and bring consolidations before staging another decline.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Apr -0.84T -0.60T -1.71T -1.63T
0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence May -6.80% 0.30%
1:30 AUD Wage Cost Index Q/Q Q1 0.70% 0.70% 0.70%
8:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Mar 24.2B 21.9B
8:30 GBP Bank of England Minutes 0--0--9 0--0--9
8:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Apr 0.40% 0.10%
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar A -8 -9
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.9M
18:00 USD FOMC Minutes
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency slipped briefly to 1.3678 and bids at 1.3680-1.3700 area were filled but bids are still noted at 1.3670-75 (stops below), more buy orders are located at 1.3650-60 (stops below 1.3640-45) and 1.3625, mixture of bids and stops is tipped at 1.3600-10. On the upside, offers are still seen at 1.3730-55 area, 1.3770 and 1.3780-85 (stops above), selling interest in good size is located at 1.3800-05 (stops above), 1.3825-35 and further out at 1.3850.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.0980

As the greenback has rebounded after yesterday's marginal fall to 1.0850, retaining our view that further consolidation would be seen and another corrective bounce to resistance at 1.0926 is likely, above there would bring retracement to 1.0950-60, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.0985-90 and resistance at 1.1006 should remain intact, bring another decline later. Below said support at 1.0850 would bring retest of recent low at 1.0814, break there would extend the decline from 1.1279 (wave iii top) for a stronger correction of early upmove to 1.0800

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY - Hold short entered at 101.60

The greenback met renewed selling interest just below resistance at 101.67 (Friday's high) and has retreated, retaining our bearishness for another test of yesterday's low at 101.10, break there would signal early decline from 105.44 (2014 high) has resumed and further fall to 100.95-00, then retest of previous support at 100.76 would be seen, however, oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 100.40-50 and reckon psychological support at 100.00 would hold

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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