Thursday, May 8, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 5-9-14

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Euro Maintains Post ECB losses, UK Production and Canada Jobs in Focus

Euro was sold off sharply after ECB press conference yesterday and stays weak in Asian session today. The ECB made another dovish statement in May and indicated that additional stimulus measures would likely arrive in June. The central bank noted that the path of inflation was not satisfactory and reiterated that the strength of the euro was a concern. We expect the ECB to cut the main refinancing rates at its June meeting. It might also launch a targeted liquidity injection in order to supporting bank lending.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8733; (P) 0.8769; (R1) 0.8835; More...

USD/CHF spiked lower to 0.8702 but rebounded strong ahead of 0.8698 support. The development suggests that sideway trading from 0.8698 is still in progress and has possibly started the third leg. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for 0.8861 resistance first. Break will target 0.8952. On the downside, below 0.8765 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8698 instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
1:30 CNY PPI Y/Y Apr -2.00% -1.80% -2.30%
1:30 CNY CPI Y/Y Apr 1.80% 2.10% 2.40%
1:30 AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
5:00 JPY Leading Index Mar P 106.5 106.9 108.9
6:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Mar 16.9B 16.3B
8:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Mar -9.0B -9.1B
8:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Mar -0.20% 0.90%
8:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Mar 2.40% 2.70%
8:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Mar 0.30% 1.00%
8:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Mar 2.90% 3.80%
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Apr 14.9K 42.9K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Apr 6.90% 6.90%
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Apr 0.90%
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Mar 0.50% 0.50%
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Although the single currency rose briefly to 1.3993, euro faltered right below psychological resistance at 1.4000 and reversed south as ECB's Draghi signaled that the central bank is ready to take action in June, all bids indicated at 1.3900-05, 1.3875-85 and 1.3850 were tripped, stops below 1.3840-45 are in focus, more stops are placed below 1.3800-10. On the upside, offers are lined up at 1.3880-90 and 1.3910-20, more sell orders are tipped at 1.3940-50 and further out at 1.3990-00 with stops expected above barrier at 1.4000.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.8750

Although the greenback fell sharply to 0.8703, as dollar has reversed intra-day fall after holding above recent low of 0.8699, suggesting low is formed at 0.8703 and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain to 0.8800, then towards 0.8841 but only break of indicated resistance at 0.8851-56 would turn outlook bullish for the rise from 0.8699 to bring test of 0.8862, then towards 0.8880.

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY - Sell at 102.15

Although dollar has retreated after meeting resistance just above 102.00 level and retest of this week's low of 101.43 cannot be ruled out, indicated strong support at 101.20-21 remains pivotal and the greenback needs to penetrate this level to retain bearishness and signal early decline from 105.44 (2014 high) has resumed for further fall to 101.00, then retest of 100.76 

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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