Monday, May 5, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 5-6-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: RBA on Hold, Aussie Rebound Attempt Fails

Aussie attempts to rise after RBA left rates unchanged at 2.50% as widely expected but it quickly lost momentum and settles back into prior tight range. The most important part of the accompanying statement is that RBA maintained the view that the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates. There are some other points to note regarding the statement. Firstly, RBA said that there were "some improvement in indicators for the labour market" even though it takes time for unemployment rate to "decline consistently". Secondly, it noted that "commodity prices in historical terms remain high, though some of those important to Australia have softened further of late." Also, thirdly, the central bank reiterated that the "exchange rate remains high by historical standards."

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9254; (P) 0.9271; (R1) 0.9291; More...

AUD/USD recovers today but faced resistance from 0.9315 minor resistance and retreated again. Intraday bias is neutral for the moment. With 0.9135 intact, deeper decline could be seen. But we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 0.8659 to 0.9460 at 0.9154 to at least bring a rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9315 minor resistance will indicate that the pull back is over and will turn bias back to the upside for 0.9460 resistance.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
1:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Mar 0.73B 1.10B 1.20B 1.26B
4:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
8:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Apr F 53.1 53.1
8:30 GBP Services PMI Apr 57.9 57.6
9:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Mar -0.20% 0.40%
12:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Mar 0.4B 0.29B
12:30 USD Trade Balance Mar -40.1B -$42.3B
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Apr 54.5 55.2
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency dropped on dollar's broad-based strength after the release of much stronger-than-expected US job data, bids at 1.3850 and 1.3820-30 were filled, mixture of bids and stops at 1.3800 is in focus, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3775 and 1.3750-60 (more stops below both levels). On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3840-50 and in good size at 1.3870-75 (some stops above), more sell orders are tipped at 1.3890-00 with stops placed above barrier at 1.3900, more sell orders are located at 1.3915-25, 1.3940-50 and 1.3975.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6845

Cable's near term sideways trading is likely to continue and the rebound from 1.6823 (Friday's low) suggests consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen for gain to 1.6887, then 1.6900-05, however, break of latter level is needed to signal pullback from last week's high of 1.6921 has ended, bring retest of this level, above there would extend recent upmove for headway to 1.6940-50

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF - Sell at 0.8820

As the greenback met renewed selling interest at 0.8841 last Friday and has remained under pressure, suggesting bearishness remains for the fall from 0.8862 top to extend weakness towards last month's low of 0.8743, having said that, only a drop below this support would confirm early selloff from 0.8953 top has resumed for further decline towards recent low of 0.8699.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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