Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-7-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Stays Weak ahead of Yellen Testimony, More Downside Favored

Dollar remains the weakest currency this week. European indices stage a strong rebound as the session goes and reversed earlier losses. US futures are also pointing to a higher open. that movements trigger recovery in yen crosses but provides no support to the greenback elsewhere. Fed chair Yellen will testify to senate Joint Economic Committee today. It's generally expected Yellen would continue with a dovish tone and reiterate Fed's plan on measured tapering. And she would emphasize again that the tightening would be gradual when it comes. So, we're not expecting any special boost from Yellen on the greenback.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 101.38; (P) 101.78; (R1) 102.07; More...

USD/JPY recovers ahead of 101.32 support. But with 102.18 minor resistance intact, intraday bias remains on the downside. Break of 101.32 will resume the fall from 104.12 and likely that from 105.41 too. In such case, deeper fall should be seen through 100.75 low to 100% projection of 104.12 to 101.32 from 103.01 at 100.21 next. On the upside, above 102.18 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But as noted before, recovery from 101.32 has completed already. We'll hold on to this bearish view as long as 103.01 resistance holds.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q1 6.00% 5.80% 6.00%
22:45 NZD Employment Change Q/Q Q1 0.90% 0.60% 1.10% 1.00%
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Apr -1.40% -1.70%
23:50 JPY BoJ Minutes
01:30 AUD Retail sales M/M Mar 0.10% 0.40% 0.20% 0.30%
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Apr 3.20% 3.20% 3.20%
06:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Mar -2.80% 0.30% 0.60% 0.90%
07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves Apr 438.9B 437.9B
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Mar -3.00% 3.90% -11.60%
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q1 P -1.70% -0.90% 1.80%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q1 P 4.20% 2.30% -0.10%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.7M
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency remained confined within narrow range, whilst some offers at 1.3935 were filled, sell orders are still noted at 1.3950 and 1.3965-75, followed by mixture of offers and stops in good size at 1.4000-10. On the downside, bids remain at 1.3900-10, 1.3875-85 and 1.3850, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3825-35, mixture of bids and stops remains at 1.3800, more buy orders are expected at 1.3775 and 1.3750-60 (more stops below both levels).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6940

As the British pound has eased after yesterday's rally to 1.6996, suggesting minor consolidation is in store and pullback to 1.6942 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6854) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge there and bring another rise later, above psychological resistance at 1.7000 would extend gain towards  previous chart resistance at 1.7044 (2009 high) but near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond this level.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.3900

Euro's near term sideways trading is likely to continue and although pullback to 1.3900 cannot be ruled out, reckon previous resistance at 1.3889 would turn into support and limit downside, bring another rise later to recent high of 1.3967 but near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond psychological resistance at 1.4000 and reckon 1.4040-50 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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