Friday, May 30, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-30-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Markets Directionless ahead of Month End

Markets are rather directionless in the last trading day of May. European indices are mildly lower but there is no sustainable selling momentum. US futures point to a mildly lower open. In the forex markets, major pairs are generally staying in range. Over the week, Aussie is the winner, followed by the Japanese yen. Meanwhile, New Zealand dollar is the weakest, closely followed by Sterling. Economic data released from US saw personal income rose 0.3% in April, inline with expectation. Personal spending dropped -0.1% versus consensus of 0.2%. Headline PCE deflator accelerated to 1.6% yoy while PCE core accelerated to 1.2% yoy. Released from Canada, GDP rose 0.1% mom in March, inline with consensus. IPPI dropped -0.2% mom, RMPI rose 0.1% mom.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 101.52; (P) 101.68; (R1) 101.95; More...

USD/JPY's consolidative trading continues above 100.82 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As long as 102.36 resistance holds, deeper decline is still expected. Break of 100.75 key support will confirm resumption of whole decline from 105.41 and should target 100% projection of 105.41 to 100.75 from 104.12 at 99.46. However, note again that 100.61/75 represents a key support zone. And, bullish convergence condition is seen in 4 hours MACD. Break of 102.36 will indicate near term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 103.01 and above.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Apr 1.50% 8.30% 9.20%
23:05 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment May 0 -1 -3
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Apr 3.60% 3.60% 3.60%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Apr -4.60% -3.40% 7.20%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Apr 3.20% 3.10% 1.30%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y May 2.80% 2.90% 2.70%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Apr P -2.50% -1.90% 0.30% 0.70%
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Apr -3.30% -8.20% -2.90%
07:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator May 99.79 102.05 102.04 101.81
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Mar 0.10% 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Apr -0.20% 0.40% 0.40%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Apr 0.10% 1.20% 0.60%
12:30 USD Personal Income Apr 0.30% 0.30% 0.50%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Apr -0.10% 0.20% 0.90%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator M/M Apr 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Apr 1.60% 1.10%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Apr 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Apr 1.40% 1.20%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI May 60.2 63
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence May F 82.9 81.8
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to find good support just below 1.3600 and has rebounded in NY morning, offers at 1.3625 were filled but sell orders are expected at 1.3640, 1.3655-65 and 1.3680-1.3700 area, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.3715 and 1.3730 with stops placed above 1.3735. On the downside, good bids remain from 1.3600 down to 1.3575, more buy orders are tipped further out at 1.3550-60 (stops below barrier at 1.3550), fresh demand should emerge around 1.3525 and 1.3500 (another barrier).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6785

Cable's intra-day rebound has retained our view that minor consolidation above yesterday's low of 1.6693 would be seen and corrective bounce to 1.6765 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6882-1.6693) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.6788-90 (50% Fibonacci retracement and current level of the upper Kumo) would limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of said support at 1.6693 would extend decline from 1.6996 top for further weakness to 1.6680, then towards  previous chart support at 1.6660

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 101.15

This week's retreat from 102.14 suggests the rise from 100.82 has formed a top there and near term downside risk remains for correction of this move to 101.30-35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 100.82-102.14), however, downside should be limited to 101.00-05 and bring another rebound later. Above the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 101.89) would bring test of resistance at 102.14, break of this week's high would extend the rise from 100.82 towards previous resistance at 102.36

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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