Saturday, May 31, 2014

Action Insight Weekly Report 5-31-14

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Euro Lost Downside Momentum ahead of ECB and a Busy Week

European majors were generally lower against dollar and yen last week as markets were preparing or ECB easing actions on June 5. However, downside momentum in Euro, Swiss France and Sterling, was rather unconvincing. The majority of the markets expected the latest staff economic projection to be released this week to show inflation would stay well below the 2% target. And, ECB would likely lower all three main interest rates. The main refinancing rate could be cut from current 0.25% to 0.05%. Deposit rate could be cut correspondingly into negative territory. Meanwhile, ECB is expected to offer long-term loans to banks and pause sterilization of the crisis bond purchases. All these actions would likely boost lending and weaken the common currency. While quantitative easing is a topic to be discussed among policymakers, it would most likely not adopted this time. However, traders seemed to have scaled back some of the expectations on ECB, and there's clearly seen in the slowing pace in Euro's fall towards the end of last week.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD dropped to 1.6692 last week and the developments suggests that fall from 1.6995 has resumed. More importantly, the break of medium term channel support argues that whole rise from 1.4813 has completed at 1.6995, ahead of 1.7043 key resistance, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations. But upside should be limited below 1.6921 and bring fall resumption. Below 1.6992 will target 1.6465 key support next.

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