Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-20-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sterling Edges Higher on Inflation, But Lacks Follow Through Momentum

Sterling edges higher today after release of stronger than expected consumer inflation data. CPI accelerated to 1.8% yoy in April versus expectation of 1.7% yoy. Core CPI rose to 2.0% yoy versus expectation of 1.8% yoy. On the other hand, RPI was unchanged at 2.5% yoy versus expectation of a rise to 2.6% yoy. PPI input rose to -5.5% yoy, missing expectation of -4.9% yoy. PPI output rose to 0.6% yoy, missing expectation of 0.7% yoy. PPI output core rose to -5.5% yoy, also missed expectation of -4.9% yoy. Also released from UK, DCLG house price rose 8.0% yoy versus expectation of 9.6% yoy. GBP/USD spiked to 1.6864 but quickly retreated back to range around 1.6830. EUR/GBP dipped to 0.81260 but also quickly recovered. Today's inflation shouldn't alter the expectation of rate hike from BoE and the central bank should still maintain its stance as implied in the quarterly inflation report. That is, there is no imminent need for hike.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6796; (P) 1.6820; (R1) 1.6836; More...

The recovery from 1.6731 extends higher today but outlook is unchanged. Such recovery is viewed as as correction only and is expected to be limited by 1.6902 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, prior break of 1.6819 support is taken as a sign of trend reversal on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, ahead of 1.7043 key resistance. Below 1.6731 will target 1.6654 support first. Break will target 1.6465 key support next for confirmation. But break above 1.6902 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 1.6995 instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Mar 0.00% 0.30% 0.20%
01:30 AUD RBA Minutes
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Mar 1.50% 1.60% -1.10%
06:00 EUR German PPI M/M Apr -0.10% 0.00% -0.30%
06:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Apr -0.90% -0.90% -0.90%
08:30 GBP DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y Mar 8.00% 9.60% 9.10%
08:30 GBP CPI M/M Apr 0.40% 0.30% 0.20%
08:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Apr 1.80% 1.70% 1.60%
08:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Apr 2.00% 1.80% 1.60%
08:30 GBP RPI M/M Apr 0.40% 0.50% 0.20%
08:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Apr 2.50% 2.60% 2.50%
08:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Apr -1.10% -0.20% -0.60% -0.40%
08:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Apr -5.50% -4.90% -6.50% -6.30%
08:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Apr 0.00% 0.20% 0.20%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Apr 0.60% 0.70% 0.50%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Apr 0.00% 0.10% 0.10%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Apr -5.50% -4.90% -6.30%
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Mar -0.40% 0.40% 1.10%
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency slipped briefly to 1.3678 and bids at 1.3680-1.3700 area were filled but bids are still noted at 1.3670-75 (stops below), more buy orders are located at 1.3650-60 (stops below 1.3640-45) and 1.3625, mixture of bids and stops is tipped at 1.3600-10. On the upside, offers are still seen at 1.3730-55 area, 1.3770 and 1.3780-85 (stops above), selling interest in good size is located at 1.3800-05 (stops above), 1.3825-35 and further out at 1.3850.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold long entered at 0.8890

The greenback found support just above 0.8900 level and has rebounded, retaining our bullishness and consolidation with upside bias remains for another test of resistance at 0.8960 (last week's high), however, break there is needed to confirm recent rise from 0.8699 low has resumed for  gain to 0.8975-80, then towards psychological resistance at 0.9000 but overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond latter level and reckon 0.9040-50 would hold

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Hold short entered at 101.60

Although the greenback rebounded after falling to 101.10 yesterday, reckon resistance at 101.67 (Friday's high) would limit upside and bring another decline later, below said support at 101.10 would signal early decline from 105.44 (2014 high) has resumed and further fall to 100.95-00, then retest of previous support at 100.76 would be seen, however, oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 100.40-50 and reckon psychological support at 100.00 would hold

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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