Thursday, May 22, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 5-23-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Euro Stays Soft ahead of German Ifo

Euro weakness and comparative strength of Sterling remained the main theme in the forex markets as the weekly close is approaching. The main focus today in German Ifo business climate, which is expected to show deterioration from 111.2 to 110.9 in May. Current assessment gauge is expected to improve slightly to 115.4 while expectations gauge is expected to drop to 106.5. There is some risk for downside surprises today. But overall, even some stronger than expected readings won't be able to give sustainable lift to the common currency. Markets are fully pricing in easing actions from ECB in June. And, Euro will remain weak until we're clear on what actions ECB would actually take. Majority expects the central bank to cut all of the three interests rates, pushing the deposit rate into negative territory, plus measures to boost lending to SMEs.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8082; (P) 0.8097; (R1) 0.8108; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside for the moment. Current decline should target 100% projection of 0.8584 to 0.8157 from 0.8399 at 0.7972. On the upside, break of 0.8183 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of recovery.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
2:00 CNY Conference Board Leading Index 0.90% 1.20%
6:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q1 F 0.80% 0.80%
8:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate May 110.9 111.2
8:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment May 115.4 115.3
8:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations May 106.5 107.3
12:30 CAD CPI M/M Apr 0.30% 0.60%
12:30 CAD CPI Y/Y Apr 2.00% 1.50%
12:30 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Apr 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Apr 1.40% 1.30%
14:00 USD New Home Sales Apr 425K 384K
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded narrowly and buy orders are still seen from 1.3650 down to 1.3630, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.3620-30, fresh demand is seen at 1.3600-10 with more stops expected below figure. On the upside, offers are reported at 1.3690-00 and 1.3720-30 with stops placed above 1.3735, more sell orders are expected at 1.3745-55, 1.3770 and 1.3780-85 (stops above), selling interest in good size is located at 1.3800-05 (stops above), 1.3825-35 and further out at 1.3850.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold long entered at 1.0905

Although the greenback has retreated after rising to 1.0942 and consolidation below this level is seen, as long as support at 1.0850 holds, mild upside bias remains for the rebound from 1.0814 to extend gain to 1.0985-90 and possibly test of resistance at 1.1006, however, a daily close above this level is needed to add credence to our view that low is formed at 1.0814, bring subsequent gain towards previous resistance at 1.1053.

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF - Hold long entered at 0.8890

Dollar's retreat after yesterday's brief rise to 0.8966 suggests further consolidation would be seen but as long as this week's low at 0.8897 holds, bullishness remains for recent rise from 0.8699 low to resume later, a firm break above said resistance at 0.8966 would extend upmove from 0.8699 low towards psychological resistance at 0.9000 but overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9040-50.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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